2011-2015

Reuters | 28-May-2012 – Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak’s popularity has slipped in recent months, an opinion poll showed on Friday, as he lost support among ethnic Chinese and middle-class voters ahead of a general elections that he could call within months.

Najib is facing a dilemma over the timing of the election as his National Front coalition seeks to reverse a dismal showing four years ago that deprived it of its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time.

The 58-year-old leader has enjoyed high personal approval ratings, but analysts say it is unclear whether that will translate into increased support for his less popular UMNO party and its allies.

Support for Najib slid to 65 percent in the May poll from 69 percent in March, according to the Merdeka Center, the country’s most respected polling firm.

The dip may add to speculation that Najib may choose to delay elections until after presenting the budget on September 28.

“The small gain in Malay voter satisfaction towards the PM appears to have been outweighed by the large negative swing among Chinese voters,” Merdeka Center said in a statement.

The poll found that approval for Najib was weakest among ethnic Chinese, tumbling 19 percentage points to 37 percent and among those in the middle income bracket, falling 18 percentage points to 50 percent. His popularity among ethnic Malays, who form the majority of Malaysia’s population, rose 5 percentage points to 79 percent.

Voters’ views on the government remained lukewarm, with approval staying unchanged at 48 percent.

The survey was carried out between May 10 and May 18 among 1,019 registered voters to gauge sentiment after an anti-government protest in April.

Najib’s popularity has been lifted by giveaways to lower-income households and reforms to repressive security laws. He announced Malaysia’s first national minimum wage at the end of April in another boost for poorer voters.

He has faced a tougher struggle winning over middle class voters, however. At least 25,000 demonstrators rallied in Kuala Lumpur in April to demand reforms to an electoral system they say favors the ruling coalition.

The protest ended in chaos after police fired teargas and water cannon to disperse crowds. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was charged in May for defying a court order related to the protest and could be disqualified from parliament if convicted.

A separate Merdeka Centre poll after the protest showed that 92 percent of Malaysians want shortcomings in the country’s electoral rolls to be fixed before the election. That survey also found that only 44 percent of respondents were confident of a free and fair election process.

(Reporting By Siva Sithraputhran; Editing by Stuart Grudgings and Robert Birsel)

(This story was corrected to fix percentage fall in 7th paragraph to 19 from 21)

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 28-May-2012 — Independent pollster Merdeka Center today defended the accuracy of its recent voter survey against the Election Commission’s (EC) criticisms, and reminded the authority that the same methodology was used to rate the prime minister’s popularity.

The research firm’s director Ibrahim Suffian said that Merdeka Center’s past voter opinion polls had always returned fairly accurate results, such as surveys done to predict the possible results of general or by-elections.

He pointed out that Merdeka Center’s projections for Election 2008 had also fallen close to the actual results, which saw the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) lose its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority.

“After that, we have been continuously conducting surveys ahead of by-elections and generally, the results have been very close… within two per cent of the outcome,” he toldThe Malaysian Insider.

“We have been doing this regularly since late 2003 and we have continuously improved on our methodology and worked to strengthen the sampling of respondents over time.

He was asked to respond to EC deputy chief Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar who had cast doubt on its latest survey showing that nearly half the electorate in the peninsula distrust the country’s polls process.“Therefore, I am confident that our last survey is reflective of the Malaysian public and was done professionally,” Ibrahim (picture)insisted.

The research house had found that 92 per cent of voters want the electoral roll cleaned up before elections are held, while 48 per cent agreed that the present electoral roll was inaccurate.

Only 34 per cent thought the Parliamentary Select Committee on electoral reform was “a sincere effort” by the Barisan Nasional (BN) government “to reform” while 43 per cent thought it was an “attempt to cover up or divert public attention”.

The survey, conducted just days before the Bersih 3.0 rally for free and fair election on April 28, polled 1,019 voters who were selected from all states across the peninsula through the random stratified sampling method along the lines of ethnicity, gender, age and state.

The survey’s margin of error was estimated at ±3.07 per cent.

“Very simply, the respondents in our survey were based on our standard sampling method. We polled a representative mix of voters across the peninsula, both urban and rural, the different kinds of backgrounds and so on.

“It was the same framework used to solicit public opinion on the PM’s popularity,” Ibrahim explained.

But Wan Ahmad had questioned the credibility of those polled, suggesting that the “random” nature of the survey had caused researchers to obtain unreliable respondents from various backgrounds.

“To find a survey that truly reflects all Malaysians, we have to know the background of those who answered the survey.

“It would be better if Merdeka Center had surveyed voters who had just cast their ballots, rather than asking Rempits from the side of the road,” he had said to The Malaysian Insider.

Ibrahim, however, said that it was the EC’s right to arrive at its own opinion of Merdeka Center’s work.

He noted that it was natural for some to feel uncomfortable with the results of such polls but stressed that “we are very confident of our work”.

“The EC is entitled to its own opinion and I feel that it is just a point of view from out there. People may choose to dispute it but at the end of the day, we believe that it is reliable,” he said.

Asked for his personal opinion on the survey results, Ibrahim said the poll had pointed out that Malaysians in general want a clean and fair election and an electoral roll free from discrepancies.

“They may or may not agree with Bersih and its approaches but in terms of cleaning the roll before the polls, most Malaysians share this demand with Bersih,” he said.

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 27-May-2012 — The Election Commission (EC) today dismissed as trivial the findings of a survey showing that nearly half the electorate distrust the country’s polls process, saying the sample size used was “too small and random” to represent all Malaysians.

The survey, announced on Friday by independent pollster Merdeka Center, had found that 92 per cent of voters want the electoral roll cleaned up before elections are held, while 48 per cent agreed that the present electoral roll was inaccurate. As such, EC deputy chairman Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar (picture) maintained confidence that voters would not dispute the results of the coming 13th general election or be upset should Barisan Nasional (BN) stay in power.

But Wan Ahmad insisted that the pool of 1,019 registered voters interviewed was not representative of all Malaysians and would therefore have no bearing in the next general election.

“They only surveyed one thousand people; 48 per cent is only around 480 people. It does not reflect the majority of Malaysians,” Wan Ahmad told The Malaysian Insider.

“In any electoral process, there is bound to be some people who are unhappy. For instance, those candidates who lose in the elections would certainly be dissatisfied with the electoral system,” said.

He pointed out if anyone was dissatisfied with the results of the next general election, the federal Constitution allows them to file an official petition in court.

“For your information, 99 per cent of those cases have lost,” he added.

He further suggested that the “random” nature of the survey had caused researchers to obtain unreliable respondents from various backgrounds.

“To find a survey that truly reflects all Malaysians, we have to know the background of those who answered the survey.

“Who knows who the 1,000 respondents are? They probably just contacted them through the phone. Some will understand the questions, some won’t. And those who won’t, will just say anything.

“It would be better if Merdeka Center had surveyed voters who had just cast their ballots, rather than asking rempits from the side of the road,” he said.

But Wan Ahmad added that the EC welcomed the research findings as it confirmed Malaysians were truly wanted a clean and fair electoral role.

The EC has been under the spotlight of late, following relentless criticisms from the opposition and civil society groups that it had failed to show its commitment to implementing meaningful reforms to ensure the country’s election system is truly free and fair.

The EC stayed the target of criticisms even after the bipartisan Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) for electoral reforms had its 22-point recommendations approved by Parliament.

According to polls watchdog Bersih 2.0, the EC had dragged its feet with reforms during the panel’s six-month tenure and had refused to commit itself to implementing the 22 recommendations before the 13th general election is called.

But Wan Ahmad railed against the EC’s detractors, saying that simply dishing out criticisms and failing to engage with them was unhelpful.

“These NGOs prefer to call press conferences and insult the EC. This does not help. They should meet with the EC, present their research and cooperate with the EC to clean the electoral roll.

“The EC and NGO’s should not be enemies who only criticise each other. If they have discovered any irregularities, they must meet with the EC and explain it us, not use the data to criticise us,” he added.

He also maintained that the EC was doing all that it could to improve the electoral roll and implement the PSC’s recommendations.

“People don’t understand the constraints the EC faces — law constraints, Malaysians who do not update their addresses, as well as Malaysians who register in other constituencies.

But we are doing our jobs with honesty. The EC has dignity, and we will remain committed towards cleaning the electoral roll,” he added.

On April 28, Bersih 2.0 organised a mammoth rally to demand fair elections and the EC’s resignation, successfully drawing tens of thousands of supporters to streets of the capital to support its cause.

The group had organised its first such rally in 2007 and observers, judging from the massive turnout, had later credited the event for the massive losses suffered by BN during Election 2008.

Another rally by Bersih 2.0 organised last year on July 9 had drawn the same crowd of thousands, but like the recent April 28 event, riot police had intervened and dispersed protesters using tear gas and water cannons.

Jakarta Globe | Kuala Lumpur, 26-May-2012 – Almost half of Malaysian voters polled recently said they did not trust the country’s election system, and believed the electoral roll had dubious voters on it.

An overwhelming majority of respondents — 92 percent — support cleaning up the electoral register before elections, expected within months.

The survey was carried out last month by the independent Merdeka Center, which polled 1,019 registered voters in Peninsular Malaysia.

Just about half of them said they were not confident that the election process was free from irregularities, and about the same number believed that the 12.6 million-voter electoral roll had dubious voters including foreigners, voters with multiple identities or legitimate voters transferred to another constituency without their knowledge.

“The poll was concluded a day before the Bersih 3.0 rally,” Merdeka Centre said in a statement. It was referring to the April 28 rally for electoral reforms that brought tens of thousands to the streets. The rally started out peaceful but turned chaotic after police and protesters clashed.

The rally’s organizers had wanted to hold the protest at Dataran Merdeka, but police sealed off the historic square and warned the public to stay away.

It was the third such rally since 2007, when the protest helped swing votes to the opposition at the 2008 general election six months later.

The next election is not due until April next year, but expected sooner.

The Merdeka Centre survey showed the electoral reform pressure group Bersih, which organized the rally, had clearly got its message through. Bersih is backed by the opposition.

However, fewer than two in five respondents said they understood the key demands of Bersih, which included allowing overseas Malaysians to vote.

Almost half of them said they did not trust a bipartisan parliamentary committee set up to recommend electoral reforms.

It was, they said, an attempt by the government to cover up the problems or divert attention. Chinese and Indian respondents were the most mistrustful of the electoral process, compared with Malay voters.

Former premier Mahathir Mohamad yesterday weighed in on the Bersih rally, which he described as “preparation to reject the general election results if the opposition failed to take power.”

“Their defeat would be followed by continuous violent demonstration so that the election results can be rejected and another government set up at the behest of the opposition,” he wrote in his blog chedet.cc.

“Later they would try to hold an election again which can be manipulated by them.”

Reprinted courtesy of Straits Times

MSN Philippines News | 25-May-2012 – An overwhelming majority of Malaysians support cleaning up the country’s electoral register, one of the key demands of a movement for free and fair elections, an opinion poll said Friday.

A rally by tens of thousands of people on April 28 piled pressure on Prime Minister Najib Razak to undertake major reform of the electoral system before he calls widely expected polls.

The current system is biased in favour of his ruling coalition, critics say.

Authorities had banned the rally from the centre of the capital Kuala Lumpur and many political observers believe the negative impact of resulting clashes between police and marchers may cause Najib to delay calling the elections.

A survey by the independent Merdeka Center conducted in the two weeks preceding the rally found that 92 percent of respondents felt the government should clean up the electoral roll before elections.

Another 49 percent said they did not trust the integrity of the electoral process, against 44 percent who did.

Najib must call national elections by early next year, and many observers expect a tight contest after the Anwar-led opposition handed the ruling coalition its worst poll showing ever in 2008.

The organisers of the April rally — the clean-elections group Bersih, a coalition of dozens of NGOs — have become a major force in Malaysian politics

A similar rally in 2011 by the group — which was crushed by police — is widely seen to have pushed Najib to embark on a campaign to soften authoritarian laws in a bid to gain voter support.

Najib also ordered a panel to look into election complaints but the group has said the panel’s recommendations did not go far enough and it has left open the option of further public rallies unless demands are met.

These include cleaning the electoral roll of widespread irregularities, ensuring balloting by millions of overseas Malaysians and equal access to government-controlled traditional media.

Malaysia Chronicle | BANGI, 25-May-2012 – A survey among voters in Peninsula Malaysia found that nearly all – 92% of voters want the electoral roll to be cleaned up before elections are held.

This sentiment comes on the back of the survey which found only 44% of the respondents expressed confidence that the election process in Malaysia was free from irregularity and abuse; while 49% of the respondents were not confident.

In the same survey, 48% of the respondents agreed that the electoral list was inaccurate and “embedded with doubtful voters such as foreigners, people who were transferred without their knowledge or people with multiple identities”. Only 39% of the respondents disagreed with the statement, i.e. believing the electoral roll was accurate.

52% of the respondents also agreed that election laws should be amended to allow the electoral roll to be challenged in the courts. At the same time, only 37% of the respondents trusted the postal voting system as being transparent and free from political influence and 51% distrusted.

Majority of Peninsular Malaysia voters also support Sabah RCI The poll also asked about Peninsula Malaysia voters view on the Royal Commission Inquiry for the illegal immigrants’ problem in Sabah. An overwhelming number (81%) of the respondents also agreed to the setting up of the RCI.

Majority of voters do not understand BERSIH demands

The poll was concluded a day before the BERSIH 3.0 rally and the survey also found that only 39% of the respondents understood the key demands of the electoral reform pressure group for free and fair election in Malaysia.

When asked about their trust in the Parliament Select Committee (PSC) on electoral reform, only 34% of the respondents believed it was a sincere effort to reform while 43% of the respondents believed it was an attempt to cover up or divert public attention.

The survey was carried out by Merdeka Center for Opinion Research between 14th and 26th April 2012 to gauge Peninsula Malaysia voters’ perception of current developments.

1,019 registered voters comprising 59% Malay, 32% Chinese and 9 % Indian respondents which was reflective of electoral profile of Peninsula Malaysia were polled.

Respondents were selected on the basis of random stratified sampling along ethnicity, gender and parliament constituency. The poll was conducted via telephone to fixed and mobile line subscribers. The margin of error of the poll is ±3.07%.

Merdeka Center for Opinion Research was formally established in 2001 as an independent organization focused on public opinion research and socio-economic analysis.

MSN Philippines News | 25-May-2012 – A rally by tens of thousands of people on April 28 piled pressure on Prime Minister Najib Razak to undertake major reform of the electoral system before he calls widely expected polls.

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 09-Mar-2012 — Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s approval rating has surged by 10 percentage points to 69 per cent on the back of an improving economy and the cash handout of RM500 to low-income earners under the Bantuan Rakyat 1 Malaysia (BR1M), according to a recent poll.

Pollsters Merdeka Center found that the prime minister’s support was highest among households earning less than RM1,500 a month at 78 per cent with four-fifths of Indians and 74 per cent of Malays also giving Najib the thumbs up.

But less than half of the 1,022 voters polled in peninsular Malaysia last month said “they were happy with the government.”

Najib’s (picture) ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) is more popular with older voters, receiving 54 per cent support from those aged above 60 but only 39 per cent backing from those younger than 30, according to the survey.

“The findings also show that as many of one-third of respondents who were inclined towards Pakatan Rakyat (PR), reported satisfaction with the prime minister — indicating that such expression of approval may not all translate into votes for the ruling coalition,” Merdeka Center said.

The survey also found those in households earning between RM1,500 to RM3,000 per month, who also receive the BR1M handout, were mostly supportive of the PM and his government.

But approval for the incumbents decreased with earning power, as only 29 per cent of voters earning above RM5,000 said they were happy with Putrajaya.

Najib and his coalition remain least popular among Chinese of whom only 56 per cent are satisfied with the prime minister and just 17 per cent are happy with the federal government.

The Umno president’s popularity had been on a steady decline since hitting a peak of 72 per cent in May 2010, dropping to 69 per cent in November the same year before sliding to 59 per cent in August 2011.

Malaysia’s economy had recovered from a slight contraction in 2009 to record a 7.2 per cent expansion in 2010 before growth slowed again last year.

Reuters India | (Reuters), 09-Mar-2012 – Malaysians’ approval of Prime Minister Najib Razak jumped in recent months, an opinion poll released on Friday showed, putting him on a firm footing ahead of national elections that are expected to be called within months.

Support for Najib rose to 69 percent in February from 59 percent last August, according to the poll conducted by the Merdeka Center, the country’s most respected polling firm.

The firm attributed the higher rating to an improving economy, the disbursement of social funds to lower-income households, and security reforms announced by Najib in the wake of street protests in Kuala Lumpur last year.

The government has handed out cash payments of 500 ringgit to households earning 3,000 ringgit or less per month and increased pay and pensions for the 1.4-million strong civil service, a key vote base for the ruling National Front coalition.

“In our view, the rise in public satisfaction may be due to widespread awareness of the prime minister’s people-friendly initiatives and proposals to improve Malaysia’s democratic credentials,” the Merdeka Center said in a statement.

Najib, who has reached out to Malaysia’s middle class as a reformer, is trying to gain his first electoral mandate and reverse a shockingly bad performance by the ruling coalition in 2008 that saw the three-party opposition make historic gains.

Najib, who took over as prime minister in 2009, can wait until April next year to call the election but most analysts expect him to call it earlier, before the feel-good factor from the recent handouts fades.

The 58-year-old has toured the country in recent weeks to drum up support for his long-ruling United Malays National Organization and his government is expected to introduce a national minimum wage in the coming weeks — another potential boost to poorer families.

The Merdeka Center poll found that support for Najib was highest among poorer Malaysians, reaching 78 percent among households earning less than 1,500 ringgit a month. The survey was carried out between February 10 and 23 among 1,022 registered voters.

(Reporting By Stuart Grudgings; Editing by Robeert Birsel)