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straitstimes.com | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-May-2018 – As campaigning for Malaysia’s election drew to a close, pollster Merdeka Center predicted on Tuesday (May 8) evening that ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) would be returned to power by retaining the support of Malay voters, yet possibly lose the majority vote. This would leave it in the same position as it was after the previous election.

BN is expected to safely win 100 out of the 222 federal parliamentary seats, while its main challenger, the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, will likely bag 83, said Merdeka Center. Islamist Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), which has a stronghold in Kelantan, is expected to comfortably hold on to just two seats.

Far closer contests are expected in the remaining 37 seats.

“The high number of marginal seats implies that voter turnout will be a critical factor in determining the outcome of many seats on election day,” Merdeka Center said.

In terms of the popular vote within peninsular Malaysia, PH is expected to pip BN to the post by winning 43.4 per cent, compared to BN’s 37.3 per cent, according to estimates based on the Merdeka Center survey that was concluded at noon on Tuesday. PAS is expected to win 19.3 per cent of votes.

Voters, the report showed, were largely concerned about economic resilience and the protection of their rights more than having a clean government. With the BN’s “retention of a plurality of support among Malay voters, alongside PAS’ ability to retain at least one quarter of the Malay vote share,” BN is expected to win the election, said Merdeka Center.

Earlier on Tuesday, another Kuala Lumpur-based research firm, Ilham Centre, said that longtime BN bastion Johor may fall to PH, which is expected to maintain control over Selangor and Penang.

BN, according to Ilham Centre’s executive director Hisommudin Bakar, is expected to keep the states of Terengganu, Perlis, and Pahang and possibly win Kelantan back from PAS, which has held it since 1990. He sees BN in a tough fight with PH in Kedah and Perak.

Malaysia’s federal parliament has 222 seats, of which BN held 131 seats – 17 short of the supermajority needed to amend the Constitution. Malaysia’ electoral boundaries were redrawn this year (2018) in a manner which the opposition slammed for favouring BN.

But Mr Hisommudin said that the redelineation “was unable to add seats that can contribute to a two-thirds majority for the ruling party”. His centre found PH in the lead in 77 of the 165 seats on the Peninsula, with BN in the lead in 56 and PAS ahead in seven. The remaining 25 will see close contests.

BN leader and prime minister Najib Razak wrote in a blog on Monday that the opposition was scaremongering and making “false promises they know they cannot fulfil”.

The PH’s presidential council released a statement on Tuesday alleging that “irresponsible fiscal policy conduct since 2009, and steady erosion of the quality of our institutions have set the country back”. It pledged to evaluate the national financial position within 100 days of taking over, saying: “Respected, eminent, patriotic Malaysians will be invited to contribute in undertaking these reforms.”

cnbc.com | 08-May-2018

• Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak will be going up against old political foes and a record number of candidates.
• The country’s rising cost of living, worsened by the unpopular Goods and Services Tax and depreciation of its currency, will be among issues on voters’ minds.
• Experts predict a slim victory for Najib, even if momentum for the opposition has been gathering.

Amid a fierce political contest, Malaysia will be holding both federal Parliament and state assembly elections on Wednesday.

Stakes are high for Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is already weathering a multi-billion dollar scandal involving state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). He is going up against a record number of candidates and battles in several states, and the results will determine his political future.

Who’s running?
Najib faces tough competition from old political foes — Malaysia’s longest-serving, battle-hardened former prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, who has joined forces with opposition icon Anwar Ibrahim. The latter politician is leading the charge from prison after being thrown into jail for sodomy in 2014 — an incarceration he says was politically motivated.

The main players include the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, which is expected to win by a narrow margin, and opposition parties Pakatan Harapan, a coalition led by Mahathir, as well as Parti Islam Se-Malaysia.

Mahathir, who led the country from 1981 to 2003, was once Najib’s mentor.

Mahathir was mentor to Anwar at one time as well. If their attempt to oust Najib is successful, he reportedly plans to pardon Anwar and hand the role of prime minister down to him.

The general election will see a record number of 2,333 candidates, an increase from 1,899 in the 2013 elections.

When is voting?
Campaigning ends on Tuesday. Polling Day, when citizens get to vote, falls on Wednesday.

The decision to set the vote during the middle of the week was seen as discouraging millions of Malaysians living abroad from returning home to vote. However, outraged Malaysians took to social media to offer funding and other services to help people return home to vote.

Low voter turnout is expected to favor Najib’s coalition.

Under the Malaysian electoral system, voters submit two votes: One for state government and another for federal government.

In total, 222 parliamentary seats, and 505 state assembly seats in 12 states, will be up for the taking, decided by almost 15 million Malaysians who are eligible to vote. A 13th state, Sarawak, has already held its election.

What are the issues?
The country’s rising cost of living is a hot topic, and a Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduced in 2015, as well as the depreciation of the ringgit, have hit many Malaysians.

Najib has promised to almost double cash handouts to low-income households. The opposition says it will scrap the GST if it wins.

Despite the 1MDB scandal — the fund is being investigated for money-laundering and graft in at least six countries — corruption issues are not expected to hurt Najib’s chances.

Najib — who was cleared of any criminality by Malaysia’s attorney general — and 1MDB have both denied any wrongdoing.

“The big issue is cost of living — other issues like corruption are secondary to Malaysians’ bread and butter,” said Rashaad Ali, research analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Importantly, no one has been convicted of any crime connected to 1MDB, though investigations are still pending, noted Zeger Van Der Wal, associate professor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

Malaysia’s attorney general has cleared Najib of any wrongdoing.

“We certainly can conclude that the prime minister is a very skillful political player … when there’s a skillful politician that still has considerable popular support, you’ll also see that they tend to survive scandals like this,” Van Der Wal said.

Why does it matter?
Investors are watching the election because Malaysia is among six emerging economies where elections this year have “the potential to move markets,” according to a UBS report in February.

Because the Goods and Services Tax and currency are major voter concerns, the outcome of the election will likely affect the country’s economic policies.

“A weakened Najib would have less political capital to push ahead with post-election fiscal consolidation, though he would not likely go as far as scrapping the unpopular GST, which has exacerbated concerns over the rising cost of living,” Peter Mumford, director of Asia at risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said in a note.

Similarly, Najib’s plans for infrastructure projects and a pivot toward China could be in jeopardy if victory goes to Mahathir, Mumford said.

What’s expected?
Momentum for the opposition has been gathering, and experts believe that will narrow the margin of victory for Najib.

Consulting firm Eurasia Group says there’s an 85 percent chance that Najib will win.

Research firm Capital Economics said in an April note that Najib’s chances will be improved by “years of gerrymandering” that will make it easier for the government to collect a majority. It also claimed that “wildly” different sizes of parliamentary constituencies meant it was much easier for him to win a majority.

In response, a Malaysian government spokesperson told CNBC that the redrawing of electoral boundaries to account for population growth is a “perfectly normal practice” that has been applied in democracies around the world.

“In Malaysia, these changes were proposed and implemented by the independent Election Commission and subsequently approved by the judiciary, whose impartiality is evidenced by the fact that it frequently rules against the government and senior ministers,” the statement said.

A survey released by pollster Merdeka Center last week showed the opposition making gains, but not enough to land a majority of parliamentary seats.

Mahathir’s Pakatan Harapan coalition is likely to win 43.7 percent of the popular vote, while Najib’s coalition is expected to draw 40.3 percent, Merdeka Center said last week.

Under Malaysia’s system, the party that gets the most seats in parliament wins — even if it does not win the popular vote.

—Reuters contributed to this report.

nikkei.com | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-May-2018 — Malaysia’s ruling coalition is expected to win when the country goes to the polls on Wednesday, despite uncertainty over the outcome of nearly one-fifth of seats, according to the latest survey by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research.

In a poll carried out between Saturday and midday on Tuesday, Prime Minister Najib Razak’s Barisan Nasional coalition, or National Front, is predicted to secure 100 of the 222 parliamentary seats up for grabs.

Pakatan Harapan, or the Alliance of Hope, coalition of opposition parties headed by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, is likely to win 83 seats, while the alliance’s breakaway member, the conservative Parti Islam Se Malaysia, will take two seats. The remaining 37 seats are considered marginal and may swing in any direction.

“The high number of margin seats implies that voter turnout will be a critical factor in determining the outcome of many seats on election day,” said the independent pollster.

The opposition is hoping for a turnout rate of 85% — the same figure achieved at the previous election in 2013 — as it believes that will work in its favor.

Even so, with the strong support of the country’s majority ethnic Malays, who are mainly concentrated in rural districts, the National Front is still poised to win.

Economic issues and good governance were at the top of voters’ concerns, the survey found.

In a press statement issued in Bangi today, the center said they carried out a last-minute survey for Malaysia’s historic 14th general election (GE14) as the nation goes to the polls tomorrow.

“A survey carried among registered voters in Peninsular Malaysia between April 28 until noon on May 8 found that ruling coalition Barisan Nasional is poised to retain federal power in what is seen as one of the most contested elections ever in the country’s political history. Cost of living and governance, top voters’ concern,” the center said.

This has been an election propelled by a voter revolt over the GST as well as concerns over rising cost of living, running parallel alongside perceived governance shortfalls.

The top three issues considered most important to the voters were economic concerns at 43 per cent followed by good governance (corruption) issues at 21 per cent and weakness of leadership at 8 per cent.

Malay voters expressed the highest concern about economic issues (46 per cent) and followed by good governance issue (17 per cent).

Chinese voters placed equal emphasis on economic (37 per cent) and corruption issues (35 per cent).

Meanwhile Indian voters also held high levels of concern over economic issues (43 per cent) and placed the need for better treatment towards the Indian community at 15 per cent.

Younger voters, those below 40 years old, placed more emphasis on matters related to good governance and leadership, while voters over 40 years expressed slightly higher on concerns over communal rights (11 per cent).

Aside from voters’ top-of-mind issues, the survey also asked about latent factors underpinning their political choices.

Following up on earlier surveys which sought to work out the importance voters attached to factors underpinning Malaysian politics, the survey detected a significant shift to factors such as ethnic rights, which saw a perceptible decline, while desire for better economic performance increased.

blouinnews.com | 08-May-2018 – The Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Razak, who was certain to win the upcoming elections, not long ago, faces a reversal of fortunes amid waning public support in the wake of the huge 1MDB scandal involving state fund.

The country’s former leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad has emerged as a strong force, capitalizing on the government’s tainted image which has driven even the traditional voters of the ruling coalition away from it, notes The Guardian.

A survey released by pollster Merdeka Center showed the opposition closing in the vote gap but falling short of landing a majority in the parliament, writes CNBC.

theborneopost.com | KUCHING, 08-May-2018 : The Barisan Nasional (BN) is poised to retain power despite popular vote decline, said independent research group Merdeka Center.

In a press statement issued in Bangi today, the center said they carried out a last-minute survey for Malaysia’s historic 14th general election (GE14) as the nation goes to the polls tomorrow.

“A survey carried among registered voters in Peninsular Malaysia between April 28 until noon on May 8 found that ruling coalition Barisan Nasional is poised to retain federal power in what is seen as one of the most contested elections ever in the country’s political history. Cost of living and governance, top voters’ concern,” the center said.

This has been an election propelled by a voter revolt over the GST as well as concerns over rising cost of living, running parallel alongside perceived governance shortfalls.

The top three issues considered most important to the voters were economic concerns at 43 per cent followed by good governance (corruption) issues at 21 per cent and weakness of leadership at 8 per cent.

Malay voters expressed the highest concern about economic issues (46 per cent) and followed by good governance issue (17 per cent).

Chinese voters placed equal emphasis on economic (37 per cent) and corruption issues (35 per cent).

Meanwhile Indian voters also held high levels of concern over economic issues (43 per cent) and placed the need for better treatment towards the Indian community at 15 per cent.

Younger voters, those below 40 years old, placed more emphasis on matters related to good governance and leadership, while voters over 40 years expressed slightly higher on concerns over communal rights (11 per cent).

Aside from voters’ top-of-mind issues, the survey also asked about latent factors underpinning their political choices.

Following up on earlier surveys which sought to work out the importance voters attached to factors underpinning Malaysian politics, the survey detected a significant shift to factors such as ethnic rights, which saw a perceptible decline, while desire for better economic performance increased.

The Malay Mail | KUALA LUMPUR, 03-May-2018 — A survey has revealed that Malay support has swung from Islamist party PAS to Pakatan Harapan’s PKR after Nomination Day, making the party the second-most preferred by the majority after Barisan Nasional (BN).

Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian at a seminar today said while 41 per cent of Malays still supported the ruling coalition, PKR has increased it support by 9 percentage points from 13 per cent of the demographic.

“Based on the new findings, PKR’s Malay support now stands at 22 per cent while the support for PAS has decreased from 16 to 13 per cent.

“The comparison was made based on two separate surveys conducted on April 16 and May 1,” he said at Menara Chulan here.

In the 14th general election, PH component parties PKR, DAP, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and Parti Amanah Negara will all contest under PKR’s ticket.

PAS was once part of the Opposition pact, but has now allied itself with others under parties the Gagasan Sejahtera pact.

Among the ethnic Indian voters, however, PKR has now topped BN by 5 percentage points.

“Before Nomination Day, BN and PKR had the same percentage of 31 per cent but after that, PKR now stands at 39 per cent while BN stands at 34 per cent,” he said.

Meanwhile, there has not been much change in support within the ethnic Chinese community where 61 per cent of the support goes to PKR, while BN lost 1 percentage point post-nomination.

The rest of the respondents, he said, did not disclose their choice, were unsure or declined to answer the question.

The data was derived from one of Merdeka Center’s many preliminary surveys leading up to May 9.

Ibrahim said he hopes to release the updated findings in a couple of days.

malaysiakini.com | 02-May-2018 – GE14 | Merdeka Centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian today said that preliminary surveys showed that Pakatan Harapan was getting closer to the threshold needed to capture the state of Johor in the coming 14th general election.

Ibrahim said, for now, BN would still emerge victorious but the contest was expected to be “very close” going into the final days of campaigning prior to polling day on May 9.

“We had some 700 respondents as of last night. From the (preliminary) findings, we realise that Harapan has gained additional Malay votes while their Chinese votes are maintained.

“The gains have reached a point where they are getting closer to the threshold. But at this point in time, (it will still see) BN prevail.

“It is going to be a very close contest in the coming week,” he told a seminar in Kuala Lumpur this evening.

The event was on the Ikmas-Merdeka Centre seminar series on the 14th general election-themed the “The Battleground States”.

Ibrahim said he hopes to release data on the centre’s latest findings in a few days time as the survey was still ongoing.

Last week, Ibrahim had released data on Johor which was up to April 9.

Those findings showed that Harapan’s Malay support in Johor stood at 19.4 percent while Chinese and Indian support was at 77.6 percent and 32.7 percent respectively.

At the time, he said in order for Harapan to have a realistic chance of winning the state, it needed an additional 10 percent Malay support and five percent Chinese support.