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Angus Reid Global Monitor | Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor), 30-Aug-2008 – The majority of people in Malaysia think allegations of sexual misconduct against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim are false, according to a poll by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research. 55 per cent of respondents share this view, while 11 per cent think the charges are true.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The majority of people in Malaysia think allegations of sexual misconduct against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim are false, according to a poll by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research. 55 per cent of respondents share this view, while 11 per cent think the charges are true.

The ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO)—the biggest party in a coalition of 12 political factions known as the National Front (BN)—has formed the government after every election since the Asian country attained its independence from Britain in 1957.

Abdullah Ahmad Badawi took over as prime minister in October 2003, after the retirement of Mahathir Mohamad, who served for more than 22 years. In the March 2004 election, the National Front secured 198 of the 219 seats in the House of Representatives. Abdullah was sworn in as head of government with the biggest majority in three decades.

In the March 2008 ballot, the National Front won 140 seats in the legislature. The coalition’s share of the vote dropped drastically, from 64.4 per cent in 2004, to 50.27 per cent in 2008. According to Human Rights Watch, the most recent election was “grossly unfair” and marred by irregularities.

In 1999, Anwar—who served as deputy prime minister and finance minister during the Mahathir administration—was sentenced to jail on charges of sodomy and corruption. Anwar was regarded as Mahathir’s natural successor but had become a critic of the administration. Many Malaysians saw his conviction as politically-motivated.

In 2004, the Federal Court reversed Anwar’s conviction for sodomy and he was released from prison. Anwar’s wife, Azizah Ismail, formed the National Justice Party (PKN) in 1999. Anwar is now the leader of a coalition of opposition parties.

Last month, Anwar was arrested again, this time over allegations that he had “illegal sex” with a male aide. Homosexual sex is defined by Malaysian law as “carnal intercourse against the order of nature.” Anwar pleaded not guilty, and has been released on bail. He is running for a seat in a legislative by-election next week.

On Aug. 22, Anwar decried the government’s tactics, saying, “Since the 1999 general election, they have used every means, threat and dirty tactic in the book to ensure they secure the landslide victories. This time, this by-election takes the cake and the prime minister, deputy prime minister, ministers and other BN leaders have jumped on the bandwagon on a free-for-all, no-holds barred smear campaign against me.”

Polling Data

Do you believe in the allegations of sexual misconduct against Anwar Ibrahim?

Believe

11%

Do not believe

55%

Not sure / No reply

34%

Source: Merdeka Center for Opinion Research
Methodology: Telephone Interviews with 1,030 Malaysian voters, conducted Jul. 4 to Jul. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

The Economist print edition | 28-Aug-2008 – A sweeping by-election victory takes Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition leader, a step closer to power. The government seems blind to the danger signals

AFTER an ugly, mudslinging campaign, a by-election on August 26th in the northern constituency of Permatang Pauh may have changed Malaysia’s political landscape permanently. The stakes were high. The main opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, bidding to return to parliament, had to win convincingly to keep up the momentum of his drive to unseat the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and its allies, which have ruled since independence from Britain in 1957. The government, which lost its two-thirds majority (needed to change the constitution) in a general election in March, wanted at least to deny Mr Anwar a big majority. But he won by almost 16,000 votes, 2,000 more than in March, when his wife (with Mr Anwar above) defended the seat.

So Mr Anwar’s second shot at power remains on track. Ten years ago he was deputy prime minister and UMNO’s heir-apparent. But he was brought down by trumped-up charges of “sodomy”, a crime in Malaysia, after falling out with the then leader, Mahathir Mohamad. Mr Anwar was jailed for this and a further charge of corruption, then freed in 2004 after Dr Mahathir had handed the reins of power to the current prime minister, Abdullah Badawi. Mr Anwar has since built an unlikely opposition alliance. His own, multiracial People’s Justice Party (PKR) has teamed up with both the Islamic Party (PAS), which appeals to Malaysia’s Muslim, ethnic-Malay majority, and the firmly secular Democratic Action Party (DAP), whose main base is the ethnic-Chinese minority.

In June, soon after a ban on Mr Anwar’s holding political office expired, a young male aide made familiar-sounding accusations of sodomy, for which Mr Anwar will, again, go on trial soon. The government insists this is no put-up job, though to its embarrassment it soon emerged that the accuser had met Mr Badawi’s deputy, Najib Razak, and other government officials. In the by-election campaign, the government side constantly played video clips of Mr Anwar’s accuser swearing on the Koran that his allegations were true. In turn, the opposition reminded voters of the gruesome murder of a Mongolian woman, over which one of Mr Najib’s advisers and two police bodyguards are on trial.

Little of the mud slung in Mr Anwar’s direction seemed to stick. According to a poll by Merdeka Centre, an opinion-research outfit, the weekend before the by-election, 59% of voters in Permatang Pauh thought the sodomy allegation politically motivated, and only 11% deemed it the main issue in the election, compared with 32% who thought the economy was. Mr Anwar promises to abolish the policy of giving Malays preference for state jobs and contracts, arguing that it has mainly benefited the well-connected few. Ethnic Malays, by voting for Mr Anwar in large numbers, seem to have rejected the government’s charge that he is a traitor to his race.

Zaid Ibrahim, a lawyer whom Mr Badawi recently brought into his cabinet to lead the reform of a corrupt judiciary, says the lesson from the by-election is that voters are tired of personal attacks, and of the “overkill” tactics the government turns on its opponents. It should, says Mr Zaid, start showing the opposition some respect and engage it in a policy debate.

Other ministers, however, are much more relaxed about the by-election defeat. Shabery Cheek, the information minister, argues that the governing coalition has recovered from similar setbacks before. Furthermore, he says, Mr Anwar was campaigning in his home constituency, in a seat he used to occupy before his 1998 troubles, so his comfortable win was not that significant. Syed Hamid Albar, the home minister, notes that voters still gave the UMNO-led coalition a majority in the general election: this shows, he argues, that they still want the government in power, even if they also want to give the opposition a stronger voice.

For Bridget Welsh, an American academic who studies Malaysia, this laid-back view suggests that much of the government is “in denial” about the message the voters are sending. Hitherto, says Ms Welsh, Malaysians have been rather risk-averse. But ministers may be underestimating the effect that access to uncensored news, via the internet, is having in changing people’s views. To relieve the pressure for his resignation over the March election upset, Mr Badawi has promised to hand over to Mr Najib in 2010. Ms Welsh notes that since Mr Najib is popular within UMNO, but is seen outside it as a hardliner, his rise may not solve the party’s problem with voters.

Mr Anwar claims he is close to prising enough parliamentarians from the government benches to give him a parliamentary majority—he even boasts of taking power by September 16th, Malaysia Day. But this will be a tall order. His alliance has 82 seats in the 222-seat lower house. He would need comfortably more than the minimum of 30 floor-crossers to form a stable government—and in practice most would need to be Malays, ie, from UMNO rather than its non-Malay coalition partners. Most potential defectors will be loth to jump ship unless they feel sure the government is about to collapse.

Mr Anwar says it is not that important if he does not get enough defections by September 16th. He argues that the “climate of change” among the public, especially the Malays, means that the momentum behind him is now unstoppable. However, Tricia Yeoh, of the Centre for Public Policy Studies, a think-tank, says that to maintain it, the opposition leader must urgently press on with forming a credible shadow cabinet, to show that his disparate alliance has the “seriousness and capability” to take on the job of government.

What if UMNO does fall, either through defections in the short term or by losing the next election, and Malaysia gets its first alternation of power? Many institutions of state—especially the police, courts and civil service—are deeply politicised. But Ong Kian Ming, a political scientist, reckons that most would fall in line if the opposition takes power, as long as Mr Anwar avoids provoking them needlessly. Most big Malaysian businesses, despite their cosiness with the current government, would also prefer an Anwar government to a prolonged period of political instability. In the meantime the government looks likely to do everything it can to retain power. Except, it still seems, the one thing that might work: showing some tangible progress on the reforms Mr Badawi keeps promising but never provides.

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thestar online | 25-Aug-2008 – The silence on the ground among the Malay fence-sitters in the Permatang Pauh by-election has both sides worried about which way the swing votes will go.

DATUK Seri Anwar Ibrahim is once again looking like the average Penang Malay bloke.

Days of campaigning under the sun have turned his skin several shades more tanned and dark sunspots have formed on his cheeks. And the last time he was this slim was when he was in prison.

The campaign toll has also been tough for Datuk Arif Shah Omar. He told people he has shed 5kg since the day he was picked as the Barisan Nasional candidate.

But when he stopped by at a wedding luncheon in the PAS stronghold of Guar Perahu yesterday, he ate so heartily his friend teased him: “You said you lost weight but the rice on your plate looks like a small hill.”

The Permatang Pauh by-election campaign has captured the imagination of the whole country.

Anwar and Arif Shah have said all that they have wanted to say to those voting in this by-election. They know it is now time for the voters to digest the information bombardment of the last 10 days or so.

The question most asked now is whether Anwar will win with a bigger or lesser majority than the 13,398-vote margin secured by Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail in March.

Both sides express optimism in public. But privately, the candidates are rather apprehensive.

The ground has been rather quiet especially among the Malay fence-sitters or the swing group as they are known.

They are estimated to be about 20% of the 41,000 Malay voters; they are not members of any party and their votes swing with the issues and personalities of the day. Their silence is worrying to both sides.

During the March 8 elections, Barisan politicians had also noted an unusually quiet ground in Penang which turned out to be a harbinger of a massive swing to the Pakatan Rakyat.

But the silence among the Malay swing voters in Permatang Pauh is a little harder to read.

The core Malay supporters of Umno, PKR and PAS will accept whatever their respective party leaders tell them and they will vote accordingly.

But Saiful Bukhari Azlan swearing on the Quran inside a mosque has really put this group of politically non-committal group in a quandary.

In the last few days, colour banners showing Saiful seated cross-legged with one hand on the Quran flanked by his father and the imam have gone up in parts of the constituency.

Whoever put them up was aiming for a shock effect because Saiful’s entire oath, including his highly explicit mention of the sex act, was reproduced in bold black print.

“This is a by-election, not a swearing competition,” said PKR Youth chief Shamsul Iskandar.

But a Merdeka Centre survey, which is still being tabulated, suggested that the sodomy allegation against Anwar has had an impact on the older generation and housewives.

Housewives, in particular, had been very loyal to Wan Azizah throughout her husband’s incarceration because they identified with her plight. But because they are not serious readers or Internet-savvy, they also tend to be more susceptible to hearsay and persuasion.

Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian said that as of yesterday, Anwar’s estimated share of the vote was still much less than 60%.

“His share is somewhere in the high fifties now. If nothing untoward happens in the next few days and if the leading ulama in PAS continues to endorse him, he may be able to match what Wan Azizah got in the elections,” he said.

He said the younger voters clearly favoured Anwar.

“But bread and butter issues are just as important as political issues to those with young families. They are concerned about rising costs, jobs and incomes,” said Ibrahim.

Dr Wan Azizah secured a total of 30,348 votes against Barisan’s 16,950 in the last elections. It was an impressive victory that surpassed her own win in the 1999 polls when emotions were still high over her husband’s sacking.

Umno has 19,000 members in Permatang Pauh of whom 17,000 are registered to vote. Even if some of them do not support their own candidate on polling day, it will not be in big numbers.

But Ibrahim’s reading is that even if all goes well for Anwar, he would be hard-pressed to outdo the majority secured by his wife.

As such, Anwar may well find that his toughest feat tomorrow may not be in beating Arif Shah but his own wife’s record.

PR-Inside.com (Pressemitteilung) – Wien, Austria | KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP), 17-Aug-2008 – Sodomy. It’s not a word that pops up in everyday conversation in any society. But in Malaysia, where sodomy is a crime, it has become part of the political vocabulary, used with unabashed ease in newspaper headlines, on prime time television news and in dinner chats and smutty jokes on the Internet.

Malaysians have been transfixed by a lurid political drama that began unfolding in June when top opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was accused of sodomizing a male aide, the second time he has faced such an allegation in a decade. Anwar says both allegations were trumped up for political purposes. The first one came in 1998 when he was deputy prime minister and locked in a power struggle with then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. The latest charge comes as he seeks to topple the current government. He is running for parliament in a special election Aug. 26 that he hopes will be his springboard to the premiership. «They are making a mockery of the process,» Anwar told reporters recently. «Give me a break. I’ve gone through hell already. … I’m convinced ultimately I’ll be vindicated.

The sodomy accusation is unlikely to hurt him, analysts say. They worry, though, about the aftermath of the vote. If the 61-year-old Anwar loses, his supporters will assume the elections were rigged and might take to the streets. Even if he wins, he faces the possibility of being convicted of sodomy, which likewise could prompt unrest. «It will be a landmark by-election. It will be a deciding factor for Anwar,» said political analyst Denison Jayasooriya.

Anwar held the seat in the northern state of Penang from 1982 to 1999, when he was forced to resign after the first sodomy accusation. He was convicted of sodomy and abuse of power and sentenced to 15 years in jail. He was freed in 2004 after the sodomy conviction was overturned on a technicality. His wife held the seat until recently, when she vacated it so he could run. He faces a relatively lightweight candidate from the ruling party. Many see the election as a referendum on the leadership of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

In March elections, the Anwar-led People’s Alliance made unprecedented gains against Badawi’s National Front coalition, which has ruled since Malaysia became independent in 1957. The National Front retained a majority of 140 seats in the 222-seat parliament, but the People’s Alliance boosted its numbers from 19 seats to 82 and won control of five of Malaysia’s 13 states.

Anwar says it is now a matter of time before he forms the first opposition government in Malaysia’s history. He has promised a corruption-free administration, racial equality, religious freedom, free-market reforms and an end to the stranglehold held by the ethnic Malay majority on politics, government jobs and contracts and university admissions.
«It is a historic moment for Malaysians, especially the silent majority to convey how they want the nation to move ahead,» Jayasooriya said.
An opinion poll by the independent Merdeka Center this month found that a majority of respondents thought the sodomy accusation _ leveled by Anwar’s 23-year-old former aide _ was politically motivated. Less than a third were confident that police would handle the case fairly.
Sodomy is a crime in Malaysia, punishable by up to 20 years in prison. More importantly, many in the Malay community, which is predominantly Muslim, consider it a sin. Malays make up about 60 percent of Malaysia’s 27 million people.

«They are using sodomy as a political weapon to defeat an opponent. It is an act of desperation. It is the only way they hope the Malay community will react against the ‘evil Anwar,»’ said Collin Abraham, a sociologist. Malaysian media, including blogs, Internet news portals and even the government-controlled mainstream media, have reported sordid minutiae of the case, including details that would be unprintable in most Western newspapers.

«It’s like a B grade soap opera. It is very embarrassing for Malaysians in the international stage,» said M.G. Sekaran, a senior business executive who said he is regularly queried by foreign business partners about the case. «I feel the country’s future is being held to ransom by a 23-year-old university dropout whose credibility is questionable at best,» he said. Media outlets have published a medical report by a private doctor who performed the first rectal examination on the former aide, Saiful Bukhari Azlan, and found no evidence of sodomy.

Police registered a case against Anwar after the aide underwent a second examination at a government hospital. The results of that examination have not been released.
The first doctor has since gone underground, leading to speculation that he may have been forced to leave the country to keep his mouth shut. The government denies any conspiracy. The aide «needs justice,» Prime Minister Abdullah said in an interview last month with The Associated Press. «That is what he is crying for. We cannot ignore that.

Agence France-Presse | KUALA LUMPUR, 10-Aug-2008 -Exactly a decade ago, Malaysia was in the economic doldrums, former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim faced sodomy charges, and disbelieving citizens suspected a government conspiracy.

Fast forward to 2008 — Anwar has reinvented himself as the figurehead of a thriving opposition, and the country has a serious case of deja vu.

The economy is in a rut, Anwar faces another lurid court case on the same charge, and a majority of Malaysians are convinced the ruling coalition concocted the allegations to once again sabotage his political ambitions.

“People have come to the conclusion that the closer he is to wanting to obtain power, the more difficult others will make it for him to achieve that,” said Tricia Yeoh from the Center for Public Policy Studies.

“A lot of people are very tired, after living through the first sodomy trial… which had a chilling effect on the country, even until today. People thought it was blatant political manoeuvering,” she said.

The first time around, Anwar’s downfall came after he challenged veteran ruler Mahathir Mohamad. The second time, he was struck down after landmark elections that he said put him within striking distance of seizing power.

The United States and rights group Amnesty International have raised concern over the new charges against Anwar, who was originally convicted in a trial that saw him brought to court with a black eye after a vicious beating from the police chief.

He spent six years in jail until 2004 when the nation’s highest court overturned the conviction, allowing him to begin campaigning for his Keadilan party which now leads a three-member opposition alliance.

In March it pulled off an extraordinary feat in general elections, seizing one third of parliamentary seats and five states in the most serious challenge ever faced by the coalition which has ruled for half a century.

Shortly after, Anwar shocked the political elite by saying he would soon form a new administration with the help of defecting government lawmakers — he needs 30 to switch sides.

The timing of the new charges, days after the charismatic 61-year-old announced he would contest a by-election to return to parliament, has fuelled suspicions of a conspiracy.

A recent survey found just 11 percent of Malaysians believe the accusations that he sodomized a 23-year-old man who was a volunteer at his office.

A full 66 percent believe it is a “politically motivated action to disrupt Anwar Ibrahim’s political career”, according to the Merdeka Center poll of 1,030 people last month.

And in sentiments that mirror those of a decade ago, only 33 percent said they had confidence in the judiciary and police who will determine Anwar’s fate.

Malaysians interviewed at a Kuala Lumpur gas station, where they filled up after a recent 41-percent price hike, had strikingly similar views, accusing the government of staging a sideshow to deflect attention from economic woes.

“The new sodomy charges against Anwar Ibrahim are all a political game because he is now a real threat to the prime minister,” said Abdul Halim, a 28-year-old designer.

Businessman Mohamad Fazli Farid said the government should focus instead on the plight of ordinary workers who are unable to cope with high fuel and food prices on chronically low wages.

“Anwar was cleared of all the sodomy charges before so what are they trying to prove now? We have all grown up in the last 10 years and people are not so stupid to just accept all these things blindly,” he said.

Sodomy is a serious offense which carries a penalty of 20 years imprisonment in Malaysia, a conservative and predominantly Muslim country. But the graphic charges do not appear to have dented his popularity.

In the electorate of Permatang Pauh in Anwar’s home state, which is expected to return him to office on August 26, voters said they were even more determined to support him.

“It looks like the government is out to fix him again. Everyone knows that the charge against him is nothing but a lie,” said 46-year-old Suhaimi Samsuddin.

“The only thing we can do now is to vote for Anwar and make sure he gets to parliament and eventually form the government. Only then can we right all that is wrong in this country.”

Copyright 2008 Agence France-Presse. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Sin Chew Jit Poh – Malaysia | 07-Aug-2008 – During the second Malaysian Student Leaders Summit, the Merdeka Centre released a poll report, revealing that the three major races in Malaysia – Chinese, Malays and Indians did not trust in each other:

• Only 39% of Chinese trusted in Malays, and 38% of Malays trusted in Chinese.
• Only 29% of Chinese trusted in Indians, and 35% of Indians trusted in Chinese.
• 57% of Indians trusted in Malays, and 55% Malays trusted in Indians.
• 39% of Chinese and 46% of Indians considered themselves as second-class citizens.
• 83% of Malays trusted in Malays, 75% of Indians trusted in Indians and only 57% of Chinese trusted in Chinese.
• 78% of Chinese believed that local politicians should be blamed for segregating the people by playing racial politics. In other words, politicians who play around with racial issues should bear the greatest responsibility. Meanwhile, the survey’s conclusion stated that the mistrust remained prevalent is likely because of Malaysians’ views of each other’s religion, ethnicity and culture were confused.

The survey was done two years ago. The outcome was alarming, but not surprising. I believe that the results would be very likely the same if a similar survey is carried out today.

Most importantly, the figures have revealed a fact, as well as a warning. What should we do? Just ignore it? Or seriously take it and do something to improve it?

Mutual distrust is always the root cause for confidence crises. In fact, Malaysians today are not only distrust in each other but we are also facing a very serious confidence crisis. Two other researches done by the Merdeka Center have reflected a trend. Firstly, a survey showed that only 6% of respondents believed the sodomy accusation against Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim while 60% believed that the accusation had political intentions. Secondly, another survey showed that the Prime Minister’s popularity has dropped from 91% last year to the current 42%. While up to 54% respondents were dissatisfied with the Prime Minister’s performance. (By LIM MUN FAH/ Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE/ Sin Chew Daily)

( The opinions expressed by the writer do not necessarily reflect those of MySinchew )

Human Rights Watch (press release) – USA | 07-Aug-2008

Police Investigation of Anwar Ibrahim Lacks Credibility

(New York, August 7, 2008) – The Malaysian government should immediately withdraw politically motivated charges against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, Human Rights Watch said today. Police served Anwar, who is running for office, with an order to appear in Kuala Lumpur Sessions Court on August 7, 2008, under a colonial-era law that criminalizes homosexual conduct.

But several instances of misconduct around the investigation into allegations that Anwar had sexual relations with a male former aide show the charges are aimed at preventing Anwar from leading a new government. Police handled the inquiry improperly, while government officials interfered in it and tried to publicly intimidate and embarrass Anwar. On August 26, Anwar is due to run in a by-election for the constituency vacated on July 31 by his wife, Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. On August 6, police ordered him to appear in Kuala Lumpur Sessions Court to face charges under section 377 of Malaysia’s criminal code, which criminalizes “carnal intercourse against the order of nature.”

“The Malaysian government appears to be manipulating the legal system to shore up support for its continued rule and undermine the opposition,” said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “This case is really about preventing challenges to the government’s rule.”

There is no legal impediment to Anwar’s running in the by-election, but denial of bail would prevent him from campaigning. Although a “sodomy charge” is a non-bailable offense, common practice has been for bail to be granted. Given Anwar’s high public profile, Human Rights Watch said that bail should be granted, as there is no evidence that he is a flight risk or will intimidate the complainant or any witnesses.

The police investigation into the allegations against Anwar, who was arrested on July 18 and interrogated about the accusations, has lacked transparency and impartiality. Police refused to publicly release the first information report filed by the complainant, Saiful Bukhari, as required under Malaysian law. This has fuelled suspicions that the document may have been altered after Anwar’s arrest.

Even more damaging to the credibility of the police investigation and the Malaysian government has been their response to a medical report by the first doctor to examine Saiful. The report of an anal examination conducted by a doctor at Hospital Pusrawi, and leaked on the internet on July 29, found no evidence of “sodomy.” Kamaruddin Ahmad, the hospital’s medical director, verified the report as authentic, but said the doctor who examined Saiful was a general practitioner, not a specialist, and that the examination was not “sodomy-related.”

Deputy Inspector General of Police Ismail Omar dismissed the report’s relevance, describing it “as an attempt to sabotage police investigations” and confuse the public. Ismail also told reporters that police are considering investigating news sources that leaked the medical report.

“The authorities seem more concerned with investigating how the medical report was leaked than with the fact that its content doesn’t support the criminal charges,” said Adams.

The government of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has faced serious challenges from opposition parties since the national election in March 2008 in which the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) lost its two-thirds majority in the parliament and control of five states. Public opinion polls in Malaysia indicate little support for the prosecution of Anwar. An opinion poll released on August 1 by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research found only 11 percent believed the sodomy allegations, while two-thirds believed the charges are politically motivated. Only a third expressed confidence that institutions such as the judiciary, the police and the attorney-general’s office would perform their roles in Anwar’s case in a fair and transparent manner.

“The charges leveled against Anwar provide the government a convenient distraction from current political crises,” said Adams. “Pursuing this case will only undermine the credibility of the police, the prosecutor and the government.”

The sodomy charges were filed under an antiquated law, a holdover from British colonial rule, that criminalizes “carnal intercourse against the order of nature,” both consensual and non-consensual. Human Rights Watch opposes all laws used to criminalize consensual homosexual conduct between adults, and urged the Malaysian authorities to repeal those provisions while replacing those on non-consensual sexual acts with a modern, gender-neutral law on rape.

Anwar’s previous trials in 1999 and 2000 on corruption and sodomy charges raised serious concerns about judicial independence and fairness. The courts refused bail, prevented Anwar from raising certain defenses, disallowed witnesses from testifying, and improperly threatened defense lawyers with contempt proceedings. Then-Prime Minister Mohamad Mahathir even went on television during the trial to declare Anwar guilty.

If the charges are not dropped, trial proceedings should be fair and public, and conducted by an independent, impartial and competent court that meets international due process standards, Human Rights Watch said. This includes selecting the judge at random according to the standard practice in Malaysia. There should be no shadow of suspicion that the selection of the judge was fixed, as in the previous trials.

Asian Wall Street Journal | KUALA LUMPUR, 07-Aug-2008 — A confrontation that could decide Malaysia’s political future escalated, as police ordered charismatic opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to appear in court today, where his lawyers said they expect him to be charged with sodomising a former aide.

The development came amid an increasingly bitter leadership struggle that is dividing the resource-rich Southeast Asian nation as it faces rising inflation and a slowing economy. Should Anwar be charged, it will mark the second time in a decade he has faced prosecution on sex allegations. And it will put the impartiality of Malaysia’s justice system and the credibility of an increasingly wobbly Barisan Nasional government — which has been in power continuously for 50 years — under an intense spotlight at home and abroad.

One of the Islamic world’s best-known politicians, Anwar was served a warrant yesterday ordering him to appear in a Kuala Lumpur court today. In a statement, Deputy Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Ismail Omar said the Attorney-General’s office had decided to charge Anwar after police completed an investigation into a criminal case involving sexual “intercourse against the natural order,” using the country’s legal terminology for sodomy. In Malaysia, that is a crime that carries a jail sentence of as many as 20 years.

Anwar has denied sodomy allegations made against him by a 23-year-old male aide in June, and he claims he is being framed by his political rivals to undermine his bid to topple the BN government and become Malaysia’s premier. Yesterday, he accused the police and government politicians, including the office of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, of orchestrating a conspiracy against him by staging a “sham trial” to divert attention from political and economic problems.

“Tomorrow (today), I will be charged with a crime I didn’t commit,” Anwar said, adding “I will fight. I will not allow this cowardly attack to derail [the opposition’s] agenda for change.”

Abdullah, other senior government officials and the police have repeatedly denied the sodomy investigation is politically motivated. Yesterday, the prime minister rejected Anwar’s conspiracy allegation, saying his expected prosecution was “on the basis of due process of the law.” According to the Associated Press, Abdullah told reporters “How could I insist that he be charged? If there is no evidence, the police are not so stupid to charge” him.

Anwar, 60, has been engaged in a challenge for political power since the alliance of opposition parties he leads made unexpectedly strong gains in March parliamentary elections. Voters sharply eroded Abdullah’s majority in Parliament and left Anwar’s coalition, known as Pakatan Rakyat, within striking distance of challenging for control of this predominantly Muslim nation of 27 million people. The confrontation has shaken a country that has enjoyed long periods of political stability and is a major exporter of palm oil, natural gas and electronic components to the global economy.

Last week, Anwar announced plans to run for a parliamentary seat in a by-election scheduled to be held on Aug 26. If he is elected, as is widely expected, Anwar would be eligible to become premier should the opposition alliance succeed in ousting the BN. If he is charged with sodomy and detained, Anwar could still contest the by-election. But should he be subsequently convicted, he would lose his seat and could be barred from public office for years.

“The BN realises it can’t stop Anwar being elected, but by using the sodomy allegations they can reduce his [by-election] majority and take some of the sting out of his victory,” said James Chin, a political-science professor at the Malaysia campus of Australia’s Monash University.

The prosecution of Anwar could strain ties with the US and other Western countries that have expressed concern over the investigation into the sodomy allegations. That concern is based, in part, on the prosecution of Anwar on similar charges a decade ago, after he was purged as deputy prime minister by then-Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Anwar denied the charges. After a police investigation and a trial that were criticised by independent legal experts as flawed and politically motivated, the former deputy premier was found guilty of sodomy in 1999 and imprisoned until his conviction was overturned on appeal in 2004.

Anwar has maintained that his earlier sodomy conviction was part of a conspiracy to stop him from challenging Dr Mahathir for the premiership. Dr Mahathir has denied there was any conspiracy and has said he believes Anwar was, in fact, guilty of sodomy, despite his later acquittal.

In recent weeks, Malaysian government officials have aggressively defended the latest sodomy investigation, at one point calling in diplomats on short notice to insist there was no political interference or motive influencing it. The US, in particular, has drawn fire from Kuala Lumpur. In July, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice irritated the Malaysian government by saying Washington wants to “see transparency and rule of law to be completely followed” in the Anwar inquiry.

Last week, former US Vice-President and Nobel Prize winner Al Gore criticised Malaysia over the sodomy investigation. “The real tragedy is that the government engages in character assassination to silence an effective leader of the political opposition,” he alleged in a statement. “Twice, now, the government has used the same tactic in an effort to politically destroy Anwar Ibrahim. In the process, however, it is damaging its own credibility at home and abroad.”

The decision to charge Anwar is also likely to fuel a fiery internal public debate over the independence of Malaysia’s justice system. The case already has focused attention on a legal system still widely viewed as vulnerable to political pressure.

Public confidence in law-enforcement institutions — the police, public prosecutors and the judiciary, which have been dogged by scandals — is low. A recent opinion survey by the Merdeka Centre, an independent Malaysian polling organisation, showed a majority of those asked believe Anwar’s allegations that the latest sodomy charge is politically motivated, despite government denials.

“Regardless of whether Anwar is acquitted, convicted or charged, the political impact will be great because the ruling government has been tarnished by these events,” said Khoo Kay Peng, a Kuala Lumpur-based author and political analyst.

The impending prosecution of Anwar also comes at a time when Abdullah’s government is losing popularity amid rising inflation and slowing economic growth, and the 68-year-old prime minister is facing pressure from members of his own party, Umno. That has already forced Abdullah to announce he will retire in mid-2010, several years before his current term would expire.

Another opinion survey by the Merdeka Centre, released on Aug 1, found that Abdullah’s public-support rating had plunged to its lowest level, 42%, while 72% of participants said they felt the country was directionless as inflation and other economic problems were mounting amid the continuing political crisis. Abdullah’s anointed successor, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak, drew even lower approval figures in the poll.

Some political analysts suggest that to counter Anwar’s growing political clout, the ethnic-Malay-dominated government will rely more heavily on the race-based politics it has employed to stay in power since Malaysia’s independence from Britain in 1957. In particular, the BN has relied on a sweeping affirmative-action programme for the country’s majority Muslim Malay population to win support. Malays make up about 60% of the population, while ethnic Chinese, Indians and other groups make up the rest.

Already, some senior government officials have condemned Anwar, himself a Malay, as a “traitor” to his race for pledging to roll back the decades-old affirmative-action policy to make Malaysia more economically competitive internationally and win the backing of the country’s large non-Muslim minority groups.

Singapore Straits Times | KUALA LUMPUR, 06-Aug-2008 — By declaring his intention to hand over power in mid-2010, beleaguered Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi must now grapple with the question of how history will judge him. A cursory assessment of his successes and failures since coming into office in November 2003 is not a pretty picture.

Findings of a recent survey by the respected Merdeka Centre showed that his popularity has slumped to its lowest level, cynicism towards his administration is on the rise and public confidence in the security and justice systems has eroded further.

In a nutshell, the promised break with the past — particularly the excesses in public management and the browbeating of once-independent public institutions associated with his predecessor — has not materialised.

For his part, Abdullah has maintained that the reforms he promised when coming to power will take time to implement.

But analysts are sceptical and many wonder if the premier will be able to use the two years that he still has in office to fix the damage and burnish his credentials before handing over power.

“Abdullah and Umno need to quickly realise that analog solutions won’t solve digital-age problems,” says a senior associate of Abdullah. He concedes that the premier faces an uphill battle winning back the confidence he enjoyed in the early months of 2004 when his popularity was at its peak.

Ironically for Abdullah, he faces the prospect of his legacy being defined by how his government treats its chief political nemesis Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The sacking of Anwar from government and subsequent jail sentences a decade ago cast a permanent blight on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s 22 years in office.

Similar to events 10 years ago, Anwar faces accusations of sodomy and the police are widely expected to charge him in the coming days. Again, he is alleging that the accusations are part of a government conspiracy to prevent him from coming to power.

Abdullah’s problem is that many Malaysians think so too.

According to the recent Merdeka Centre survey, only 11 per cent of the Malays and Chinese, and 13 per cent of the Indians polled believe the allegations of sexual misconduct against the former deputy premier.

Of the 1,030 randomly selected Malaysians whose views were polled, 50 per cent of the Malays, 59 per cent of the Chinese and 75 per cent of the Indians believe Anwar is a victim of a frame- up.

This tricky tightrope walk in dealing with Anwar will come into sharp focus during the campaign in the upcoming by-election in Abdullah’s home state of Penang.

The by-election at Permatang Pauh, which is close to Abdullah’s own constituency of Kepala Batas, is set to become a referendum of sorts on the Barisan Nasional government.

Still, some analysts believe Abdullah’s problems stem from the reluctance of his ruling Umno party to accept the March 8 election result. This was when Malaysians from across the racial divide rejected the Umno-led BN coalition because of rampant corruption and its tone-deaf style of running the government.

They note that Anwar’s political gains are simply because he has managed to tap this wellspring of discontent.

To arrest the government’s decline, Abdullah will need to show more determination in his reform agenda and radically change Umno’s image as a monolithic organisation bereft of checks and balances.