In The News

blouinnews.com | 08-May-2018 – The Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Razak, who was certain to win the upcoming elections, not long ago, faces a reversal of fortunes amid waning public support in the wake of the huge 1MDB scandal involving state fund.

The country’s former leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad has emerged as a strong force, capitalizing on the government’s tainted image which has driven even the traditional voters of the ruling coalition away from it, notes The Guardian.

A survey released by pollster Merdeka Center showed the opposition closing in the vote gap but falling short of landing a majority in the parliament, writes CNBC.

theborneopost.com | KUCHING, 08-May-2018 : The Barisan Nasional (BN) is poised to retain power despite popular vote decline, said independent research group Merdeka Center.

In a press statement issued in Bangi today, the center said they carried out a last-minute survey for Malaysia’s historic 14th general election (GE14) as the nation goes to the polls tomorrow.

“A survey carried among registered voters in Peninsular Malaysia between April 28 until noon on May 8 found that ruling coalition Barisan Nasional is poised to retain federal power in what is seen as one of the most contested elections ever in the country’s political history. Cost of living and governance, top voters’ concern,” the center said.

This has been an election propelled by a voter revolt over the GST as well as concerns over rising cost of living, running parallel alongside perceived governance shortfalls.

The top three issues considered most important to the voters were economic concerns at 43 per cent followed by good governance (corruption) issues at 21 per cent and weakness of leadership at 8 per cent.

Malay voters expressed the highest concern about economic issues (46 per cent) and followed by good governance issue (17 per cent).

Chinese voters placed equal emphasis on economic (37 per cent) and corruption issues (35 per cent).

Meanwhile Indian voters also held high levels of concern over economic issues (43 per cent) and placed the need for better treatment towards the Indian community at 15 per cent.

Younger voters, those below 40 years old, placed more emphasis on matters related to good governance and leadership, while voters over 40 years expressed slightly higher on concerns over communal rights (11 per cent).

Aside from voters’ top-of-mind issues, the survey also asked about latent factors underpinning their political choices.

Following up on earlier surveys which sought to work out the importance voters attached to factors underpinning Malaysian politics, the survey detected a significant shift to factors such as ethnic rights, which saw a perceptible decline, while desire for better economic performance increased.

The Malay Mail | KUALA LUMPUR, 03-May-2018 — A survey has revealed that Malay support has swung from Islamist party PAS to Pakatan Harapan’s PKR after Nomination Day, making the party the second-most preferred by the majority after Barisan Nasional (BN).

Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian at a seminar today said while 41 per cent of Malays still supported the ruling coalition, PKR has increased it support by 9 percentage points from 13 per cent of the demographic.

“Based on the new findings, PKR’s Malay support now stands at 22 per cent while the support for PAS has decreased from 16 to 13 per cent.

“The comparison was made based on two separate surveys conducted on April 16 and May 1,” he said at Menara Chulan here.

In the 14th general election, PH component parties PKR, DAP, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and Parti Amanah Negara will all contest under PKR’s ticket.

PAS was once part of the Opposition pact, but has now allied itself with others under parties the Gagasan Sejahtera pact.

Among the ethnic Indian voters, however, PKR has now topped BN by 5 percentage points.

“Before Nomination Day, BN and PKR had the same percentage of 31 per cent but after that, PKR now stands at 39 per cent while BN stands at 34 per cent,” he said.

Meanwhile, there has not been much change in support within the ethnic Chinese community where 61 per cent of the support goes to PKR, while BN lost 1 percentage point post-nomination.

The rest of the respondents, he said, did not disclose their choice, were unsure or declined to answer the question.

The data was derived from one of Merdeka Center’s many preliminary surveys leading up to May 9.

Ibrahim said he hopes to release the updated findings in a couple of days.

malaysiakini.com | 02-May-2018 – GE14 | Merdeka Centre executive director Ibrahim Suffian today said that preliminary surveys showed that Pakatan Harapan was getting closer to the threshold needed to capture the state of Johor in the coming 14th general election.

Ibrahim said, for now, BN would still emerge victorious but the contest was expected to be “very close” going into the final days of campaigning prior to polling day on May 9.

“We had some 700 respondents as of last night. From the (preliminary) findings, we realise that Harapan has gained additional Malay votes while their Chinese votes are maintained.

“The gains have reached a point where they are getting closer to the threshold. But at this point in time, (it will still see) BN prevail.

“It is going to be a very close contest in the coming week,” he told a seminar in Kuala Lumpur this evening.

The event was on the Ikmas-Merdeka Centre seminar series on the 14th general election-themed the “The Battleground States”.

Ibrahim said he hopes to release data on the centre’s latest findings in a few days time as the survey was still ongoing.

Last week, Ibrahim had released data on Johor which was up to April 9.

Those findings showed that Harapan’s Malay support in Johor stood at 19.4 percent while Chinese and Indian support was at 77.6 percent and 32.7 percent respectively.

At the time, he said in order for Harapan to have a realistic chance of winning the state, it needed an additional 10 percent Malay support and five percent Chinese support.

The Malay Mail | KUALA LUMPUR, 02-May-2018 — Pakatan Harapan (PH) has moved nearer towards reaching the threshold needed to win Johor in the election, according to independent pollster Merdeka Center’s preliminary survey.

Its executive director Ibrahim Suffian said while the situation still appears to favour Barisan Nasional, the latest findings revealed that the Opposition pact is gaining more Malay votes as polling day draws closer.

“We realise that Pakatan has gained additional Malay votes while the Chinese votes are maintained.

“It has reached a point where they are getting closer to the threshold. But at this point, BN still prevails,” he said at a Merdeka Center seminar at Menara Chulan here.

As of last night, the preliminary survey involved some 700 respondents nationwide.

He, however, did not disclose the new percentages as of May 1, as the survey was still ongoing.

Ibrahim said he hoped to reveal the updated findings containing the latest figures by next week.

Last week, Merdeka Center released its findings which showed that the ethnic Chinese in Johor has expressed the most confidence for Pakatan at 77.6 per cent.

Meanwhile, Malay and ethnic Indian support stood at 19.4 per cent and 32.7 per cent respectively.

He previously said PH needed an extra 10 per cent of Malay support and 5 per cent of Chinese support to have a realistic chance at capturing the state.

The findings were formulated from data collected up until April 9.

In 2013, then opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat had won 18 out of 56 state seats in Johor, which was triple the number of seats it previously won in 2008.

thestar.com.my | 29-Apr-2018 – THERE is dissatisfaction among Malay voters, especially those living in urban constituencies in the Klang Valley, where griping about the high cost of living and corruption is a preoccupation.

Make no mistake though; such unhappiness will translate into votes for the Opposition on polling day. But whether a Malay tsunami or merely waves of discontent prevail remains to be seen.

Journalists and pollsters who have visited the villages and engaged the rural electorate did not sense overwhelming anger to end Barisan Nasional’s reign.

Those who have loudly predicted the winds of change are mainly urbanites who have never ventured into these backwoods. Quiz them on the names of the 114-odd rural Malay constituencies and they are most likely to stare blankly.

They make their deductions based on chatter among friends in WhatsApp chat groups, interacting with people who echo their political sentiments.

Those who fail to fall in line with these loud voices are likely to keep their cards close to their chests for fear of being singled out, or worse, being booted out of these chat groups.

Obviously, many will find it difficult to embrace the latest findings of independent polling firm Merdeka Center, which says that Barisan Nasional will win in the general election.

What Merdeka Center has revealed is what many other pollsters – local and foreign – have said all along, except with different spins. The prognosis, however, is consistent.

Then there are those likely to subscribe to the findings of Invoke (funded by PKR leader Rafizi Ramli), it being more in tune with what they want to believe. The body has predicted the collapse of Barisan and PAS getting zero representation.

Last week, Merdeka Center reported that any swing in Malay support towards the Opposition will not be enough for Pakatan Harapan to wrest Putrajaya from Barisan.

It said not only is the ruling coalition poised to retain the status quo, but it also has the potential to “add a few more seats”.

Its executive director Ibrahim Suffian admitted that the shift in Malay support away from Barisan had benefited the Opposition in areas like Selangor, where it had captured enough votes to secure the state government.

There was a swing in Johor and Kedah as well, but it had not reached the level needed to form the state government, he added.

“In other states, the swing is present but because Opposition votes will be split, it is not likely to be material enough to shift the outcome,” he said after the forum “Malaysia GE14 Outlook: Perspec­tives and Outcomes”.

His assessment came a month after research outfit Ilham Centre said even growing disappointment among voters who supported PAS and Umno would not let Pakatan form the Federal Government.

The Opposition is banking on a “Malay tsunami” to win the coming polls.

However, Ibrahim said the only state where Pakatan had the potential to deny Barisan a two-thirds majority is Sabah.

“Pakatan and Warisan might make some inroads, but we don’t think it will be enough to take the government,” he reportedly said, referring to Sabah-based Parti Warisan Sabah, which is led by former Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal.

He said the 1MDB controversy, the rising cost of living and the Goods and Services Tax had played a part in drawing support away from Barisan.

“But the recent redelineation exercise and PAS’ decision to leave Pakatan and be a third force has improved Barisan’s chances, even though we are likely to see a lower popular vote (for Barisan),” he said.

Ibrahim also said the Merdeka Center survey showed that Malay sentiment against the ruling coalition was likely to cause only a 7.9% swing in the May 9 polls.

Malay voters constitute 62% of voters in the country, scattered across 120 parliamentary seats. Out of the 222 parliamentary seats, 117 are bumiputra seats in rural areas.

He said if Barisan hopes to maintain the status quo, they need to secure at least 95 seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

“At this time, we estimate their support level at 53% of the Malay vote,” Ibrahim added.

According to him, Merdeka Center estimates that Barisan would require 47.5% of Malay support to win the 95 seats.

“So, right now, they have a 5.5 percentage point surplus (of Malay support) nationwide. They (Barisan) still have the majority of the Malay vote,” he said, adding that this was despite dwindling support in a few states.

If Pakatan were to clinch the election, Merdeka Center estimates that it would need to win 100 seats in the peninsula.

Ibrahim said the Opposition needs to attain 34% of support from Malay voters, assuming non-Malay support stays the same.

“Right now, they have 20% of the Malay support. That is 14 percentage points short of the 34% target,” he explained.

Basically, over the next 10 days of campaigning, all the resources of both Barisan and Pakatan will be used on the Malay electorate – those who will decide the winner of the general election.

In the 2013 general election, there were 30 Chinese majority seats or 13.5% of the parliamentary seats, according to a recent news report, quoting social media analytics firm Politweet.

But another group, Tindak Malaysia, has claimed that the number of Chinese majority seats has dropped to 24. There is also another stark fact – even without the redelineation exercise, the number of Chinese voters has continued to shrink sharply.

Barisan doesn’t need Bangla­deshis to help it win the elections, as some would like to suggest, because all it needs is PAS – as the spoiler – and the rural Malay votes.

Anyone attempting to look at the small margins of the last elections must consider that these tiny majorities, in many instances, were the result of PAS members supporting the Opposition pact of 2013.

But this time, instead of voting for Pakatan, PAS members will likely vote for their Islamist party instead, which will be contesting in 140 parliamentary seats.

Those who have written PAS off haven’t spoken to their die-hard supporters, who still flood the rallies in huge numbers.

It can’t be ignored that our first-past-the-post system isn’t based on popular votes. The redelineation exercise will have an impact.

The multi-cornered fights will play into the hands of mainly Barisan, although they could also backfire in some parliamentary constituencies.

If the Malay votes are split, then Barisan must depend on the non-Malay votes. But if these minority communities back the Opposition, then the coalition will have it tough.

In locations with up to seven contenders, the slugfest will be even more intense as crucial votes could be snatched from both Barisan and Pakatan.

Another potential disruptive factor for both coalitions is sabotage by sulking members who have either been dropped or not selected to contest.

Driven by analysis and public opinion, though, the grand summation is a familiar one – Pakatan will struggle to unseat Barisan.

straitstimes.com | 27-Apr-2018 – PETALING JAYA (THE STAR/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) – Ruling coalition Barisan Nasional will prevail in Malaysia’s upcoming general election despite growing Malay sentiment against it, pollster Merdeka Center revealed in its latest survey.

The survey showed that Malay sentiment against BN is likely to cause a 7.9 per cent swing in the May 9 polls.

According to Mr Ibrahim, Malays make up 62 per cent of voters in Malaysia, with 117 of the country’s 222 parliamentary seats having a majority of Malay voters.

If BN hopes to maintain its status quo – it won 133 seats in the last election in 2013 – it will need to secure at least 95 seats in Peninsular Malaysia, said Mr Ibrahim. The Merdeka Center estimates BN would require 47.5 per cent of Malay support to win the 95 seats.

“At this time, we estimate their support level at 53 per cent of the Malay vote,” said Mr Ibrahim. “So right now they have a 5.5 percentage points surplus (of Malay support) nationwide,” said Mr Ibrahim.

“They (Barisan) still have the majority of the Malay vote,” he said, adding that this was despite a fall in support in some states.

Meanwhile the pollster says opposition pact Pakatan Harapan will need 100 seats in Peninsular Malaysia to win the election.

They need to attain 34 per cent of support from Malay voters, assuming that their non-Malay support base does not change, he said.

“Right now, they have 20 per cent of the Malay support. That is 14 percentage points (ppts) short of the 34 per cent target,” said Mr Ibrahim.

If Parti Islam Semalaysia (PAS), the third faction in the election battle, wants to be “king-maker” in the event neither BN nor PH gain a clear majority, Merdeka Centre estimates the Islamist party will need to win 20 seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

“They are not counting on the non-Malay votes at all, they get only support from the Malay voters,” said Mr Ibrahim.

“We estimate that their support right now is 27 per cent of the Malay voters, and they need 39.5 per cent to cross the line. That’s 12.5 percentage points short,” he said.

Mr Ibrahim said that despite the decline in overall support for BN compared to previous elections, the opposition still falls short of garnering the votes they need to win Malaysia’s 14th election.

“If the opposition cannot get the support they need, this could be fatal come election day,” said Mr Ibrahim.

He said that the split in opposition votes – between PH and PAS – may have prompted some undecided voters to go back to voting for BN.

“BN will prevail despite a lower vote share,” he concluded.

The survey was conducted among 1,206 voters across all states of Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak through telephone interviews between April 3 and 9.

Respondents were selected through random stratified sampling by ethnicity, age, gender and Parliamentary constituency.

malaysiakini.com | 24-Nov-2017 – A survey of 1,203 voters has suggested that Malaysians are experiencing economic distress amidst strong macroeconomic growth numbers.

“The survey also indicates that between one to two out of every 10 Malaysians are cutting back on essentials, such as food, in order to make ends meet,” Merdeka Center said in a statement today.

However, survey found that there were slight improvements, based on seven economic stress indicators, since a similar survey was conducted in January.

Fifteen percent of the respondents said they skipped meals to make ends meet, up two percent from January.

One in five respondents said they have taken on new debts in the form of personal loans or charging of credit cards while 11 percent they had to pawn off their possessions.

“Fifteen percent of the respondents reported having encountered new conflicts with the family, a two percent increase compared to January 2017,” said the pollster.

Meanwhile, 29 percent of respondents did not have RM500 in emergency funds, down 33 percent from the previous survey.

Nearly two-thirds of the respondents “felt stressed” when thinking about the future, while 40 percent said they had problems paying their utility bills on time.

Overall, Merdeka Center said, the data showed that economic issues – rising cost of living, economic hardship and jobs, among others – were the topmost concern for 72 percent of the voters surveyed.

The internally-funded survey was conducted between Nov 4 and 14.

The 1,203 respondents were selected on the basis of random stratified sampling, with age, ethnicity, gender and locality also taken into account.

themalaysiainsight.com | 24-Nov-2017 – DESPITE improving headline economic data, the signs of distress are still being felt by a sizeable number of Malaysians.

Some 15% of Malaysians skip meals to make ends meet and about 27% do not have RM500 for an emergency, a survey said today.

The Merdeka Center survey, conducted between November 4 and 14, involved 1,203 registered voters.

Commenting on the results, Ibrahim Suffian, the centre’s director said: “In our opinion, the survey conveys a picture of a Malaysian electorate that was largely affected by rising costs and feeling some levels of distress in spite of the strong macroeconomic growth numbers.

“The survey also indicates between one and two out of every 10 Malaysians are cutting back on essentials, such as food, to make ends meet.”

The survey shows a slight improvement in sentiments compared with January 2017 but some of its key findings include:

* 29% of respondents reporting that they did not possess a minimum of RM500 of savings to address any emergency, compared with 33% in January;

* 64% felt stressed thinking about the future, compared with 68% in January;

* 40% delayed or unable to make payments on utility bills, such as electricity and telephone bills, the same percentage in January;

* 20% took on new debt (in the form of personal loans or charging of credit cards), which is a 2% increase compared with January;

* 15% encountered new conflict with the family or a 2% increase compared with January 2017;

* 15% skipped meals in order to make ends meet – the same in January; and

* 11% who report needing to sell or pawn off possessions in order to meet expenses – this figure is 1% higher compared with January 2017.

The Merdeka Center survey to gauge voters’ perceptions of current developments involved 1,203 registered voters comprising 52% Malay, 29% Chinese, 7% Indian, 6% Muslim Bumiputera, 6% non- Muslim Bumiputera (from Sabah and Sarawak) and interviewed via fixed line and mobile telephones. – November 24, 2017