straitstimes.com | 12-Aug-2023 | GEORGE TOWN – Two major independent pollsters have predicted that the results of Saturday’s state elections in Malaysia will maintain the status quo, but Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government will suffer attrition in Malay-majority seats.
Merdeka Center and Ilham Centre have predicted that the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) unity coalition will retain control of Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan, while Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah will remain under opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN).
The findings by both opinion research firms also highlighted the erosion of Malay support for Umno, the lynchpin party of BN.
They said that voter turnout is expected to be lower than last year’s general election turnout of 74 per cent.
According to Merdeka Center, PN is likely to make inroads in seats where Malay voters make up more than 75 per cent of the electorate, but the opposition alliance is unlikely to win new states.
“PH likely will retain most seats in the three states it controls, except in areas where Malay voters are more than 75 per cent,” said Merdeka Center programmes director and co-founder Ibrahim Suffian at a webinar organised by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore on Thursday.
“BN is likely to see seat count declines in all states except Negeri Sembilan, unless vote transfer from PH supporters comes through,” he said, referring to the possibility of PH supporters voting for their new ally BN despite the longstanding enmity between the two coalitions previously.
But the erosion of support for BN is unlikely to affect the incumbent Umno leadership nor result in defections that could destabilise Mr Anwar’s unity government.
“Umno’s leadership will remain united as most of its dissenting figures have been expelled,” Mr Ibrahim said, referring to a purge carried out by Umno president Zahid Hamidi in January.
Mr Ibrahim noted that the few dissenters who remain sidelined in the Malay party and wish to form the federal government with the opposition PN would have their work cut out convincing the Borneo-based parties in the unity government to defect.
In a separate survey by Ilham Centre released on Friday, the pollster predicted that between 27 per cent and 58 per cent of Umno supporters will vote for PN, due to unhappiness with the leadership of Datuk Seri Zahid, the inability to accept cooperation between Umno and PH – in particular PH’s component, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) – and dissatisfaction over the choice of candidates.
“This situation can be stemmed if Umno leaders meet the grassroots to explain their decision to work with DAP and Anwar Ibrahim,” said Ilham Centre.
Merdeka Center drew a similar conclusion, finding that “vote transferability between PH and BN supporters will be pivotal in the final days of campaigning”.
Ilham Centre’s survey was conducted between July 29 and Aug 8 with 2,304 respondents, including 48 who participated in in-depth interviews. It found that PH-BN’s strategy of attacking Kedah caretaker Menteri Besar Sanusi Md Nor may cost them several seats in the northern state.
The centre said PN can even potentially make a clean sweep in Kedah if turnout is low among non-Malay voters.