2006-2010

Sin Chew Jit Poh | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-October-2009 (The Malaysian Insider) — Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s approval rating has fallen slightly, with 56 per cent of Malaysians satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister, compared with a high of 65 per cent in June, according to a new poll released today.

The poll, conducted by the independent Merdeka Center to mark Najib’s sixth month as PM, showed that many Malaysians found his efforts at reducing corruption and crime still wanting.

But a majority of those polled are satisfied with Najib’s efforts in improving the education system, managing the economy and raising government efficiency.

Overall, the survey found that the number of people dissatisfied with Najib’s performance as PM remained about the same at 23 per cent, compared with 22 per cent in June.

The Merdeka Center said the poll was conducted by telephone among 1027 randomly selected registered voters from Sept 4-14. The margin of error is 3.06 per cent.

A total of 60 per cent of the respondents were Malay, 30 per cent Chinese and nine per cent Indians.

Overall, 47 per cent of respondents felt the country was headed in the right direction and 34 per cent said it was headed in the wrong direction. The rest, at 19 per cent, did not respond.

Broken down along race lines, 59 per cent of Malays felt the country was headed in the right direction, compared with 18 per cent of Chinese and 70 per cent of Indians.

On the PM’s job approval rating, 64 per cent of Malay voters were satisfied, with 21 per cent dissatisfied while 15 per cent did not respond.

Among the Chinese respondents, 36 per cent were satisfied with Najib, 25 per cent dissatisfied while 38 per cent did not respond.

Among Indians, 68 per cent were satisfied, 27 per cent dissatisfied while five per cent did not respond.

A total of 48 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with Najib’s efforts in reducing the crime rate with only 39 per cent satisfied.

On efforts to reduce corruption, 50 per cent were dissatisfied while only 35 per cent were satisfied.

Najib scored better in the areas of education, the economy and improving government efficiency.

Among respondents, 56 per cent were satisfied with his performance in improving the education system, compared with 29 per cent who were dissatisfied.

On improving government efficiency, 54 per cent of respondents were satisfied while only 29 per cent were dissatisfied.

A total of 52 per cent of respondents were happy with Najib’s handling of the economy with only 30 per cent dissatisfied. (By Leslie Lau/ The Malaysian Insider)

08-October-2009, The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 8 – A majority of voters in peninsular Malaysia remain unconvinced Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is a viable alternative to Barisan Nasional (BN) to rule the country at federal level although they are largely satisfied with the way states under the fledgling coalition is being administered, a new poll shows.

The poll conducted by the independent Merdeka Center from Sept 29-Oct 4 showed 47 per cent of registered voters in peninsular Malaysia were unconvinced PR was a viable alternative to BN while 32 per cent are convinced.

However, 21 per cent of respondents did not offer a response, suggesting a large swing vote was still up for grabs.

The Merdeka Center poll also suggests that Malay voters tipped the balance against PR in the survey, with 56 per cent of respondents from the community unconvinced by PR compared with just 25 per cent who thought PR could rule at federal level. A total of 19 per cent of Malay voters did not respond.

A majority of Chinese and Indian voters, however, were convinced PR could be a viable alternative to BN. Some 43 per cent of Chinese respondents and 42 per cent of Indian voters are convinced with PR. However, 31 per cent of Chinese voters and 38 per cent of Indian respondents remain unconvinced with PR.

The survey also suggested that even in states with strong PR support, voters were not convinced the alliance could rule at federal level.

In Kuala Lumpur, where the majority of MPs are from PR, 57 per cent of respondents were unconvinced with PR with only 28 per cent convinced.

In Kelantan, ruled by PAS since 1990, just 38 per cent of respondents from the state were convinced a PR federal government was viable compared with 41 per cent of voters who did not.

Only in Penang, which is now ruled by a DAP-led PR government, were a majority of voters convinced a PR federal government was viable. A total of 49 per cent of respondents in Penang were convinced compared with 30 per cent who were not.

The picture was more positive for the PR coalition at state level. Overall, 46 per cent of respondents were satisfied with the performance of the four PR state governments in Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Selangor. Some 34 per cent are dissatisfied while 20 per cent did not respond.

Broken down along state lines, PR’s approval rating as state administrators was 56 per cent in Penang, 52 per cent in Selangor, 50 per cent in Kelantan and 48 per cent in Kedah.

In Perak, which is now a BN state following the February power grab, 42 per cent of respondents there were satisfied with PR’s performance in states it still controls.

In Kuala Lumpur, which has no state government, 61 per cent believed PR was doing a satisfactory job at state level.

Along ethnic lines, only 33 per cent of Malay respondents were satisfied with PR state governments, compared with 47 per cent who were dissatisfied. A total of 65 per cent of Chinese respondents were happy with PR state governments while 58 per cent of Indian voters were satisfied.

According to the Merdeka Center, a total of 846 registered voters were randomly selected for the poll. The margin of error was 3.4 per cent.

By Leslie Lau
Consultant Editor

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-October-2009 – Prime Minister Najib Razak heads into his party’s annual meeting next week promising reforms to stem corruption in a bid to reignite the waning appeal of a government that has ruled for 52 years.

Najib is also hoping for victory on Sunday in a safe state seat to stem a series of by-election losses his governing coalition has suffered since last year’s poll debacle, in which it stumbled to record losses in national and state polls.

Umno will applaud Najib if a former Cabinet minister, sacked in 2004 for buying votes, wins the seat – before they turn their attention to party reforms aimed at eliminating the kind of “money politics” and corruption that has long tainted Umno’s image.

Corruption has seen a generation of young Malays desert Umno, the party of their parents, in favour of the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), which promotes both an Islamic state and a strong anti-graft stance in this ethnically mixed Southeast Asian nation of 27 million people.

Although Najib, who has enacted economic reforms to boost foreign investment, initially saw a spike in his approval ratings to 65 per cent in July from 42 per cent before he took office in April, those numbers have not held up.

A poll by the independent Merdeka Center published on Friday showed Najib’s rating had fallen to 56 per cent in September and there are few signs younger voters are now embracing Umno.

“Now that another Malay party (PAS) is in power, they (Umno) seem to be sabotaging them, creating all sort of problems,” said Yusuff Ismail, a 35-year old sales clerk in northwestern Kedah state, one of the four states to fall to the opposition in 2008.

“This divides the Malays more,” Yusuff said. “More people will vote for PAS because at least we know they are cleaner.”

While Najib’s economic reforms have chipped away at a three-decade old affirmative action programme that gives Malays – 55 per cent of the population – preferences in company ownership, government contracts, education and housing, tough areas have not yet been touched.

The government has recently been hit by a multi-billion dollar corruption scandal over the construction of a free trade zone in the country’s biggest port. Critics have charged it has been covered up.
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“What worries me is that Najib worries there could be more (corruption) incidents in Umno. Then it will be a problem he can’t control,” said a senior Umno official who leads one of the party’s 191 divisions, the frontline units of Malaysia’s biggest mass political party.

MONEY HAS NOT FOLLOWED PRAISE

Najib, who has pledged to return Malaysia to six per cent annual economic growth and to draw in more foreign investment, has won plaudits from investment banks for the economic reforms he has announced so far.

These reforms include reducing requirements that Malays own 30 per cent of listed companies, opening up the insurance and fund management industry and other service sectors.

While praise has flowed, money has not and foreign ownership of the equity market remains mired at a touch over 20 per cent, according to stock market data, its lowest level since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

An Oct 4 report from Deutsche Bank noted that despite what it termed “bold” reforms from Najib, some investors had reduced Malaysia’s equity market, once a regional leader, to a “rounding error” when making their portfolio allocations.

“Politics matters more than ever for this market, especially when investors’ confidence in Indonesia’s political system has improved significantly over the last month,” the report said.

Indonesia’s stock market is Asia’s best performing this year and has gained 86 per cent thanks to the re-election of reformist President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono while Malaysia’s market is Asia’s worst performing.

According to the Deutsche Bank report, government-related entities own 39.4 per cent of Malaysia’s equity market and that reduces the country’s attractiveness to fund managers.

Bolder reforms, such as moves to reduce the ownership of the state and state-linked pension funds in major companies, and slashing an overmanned civil service, will be much harder as they will have a direct impact on jobs for Malays, Umno’s voter base.

Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia expert at Singapore Management University, said bolder reforms risk alienating Umno’s core voters.

“The reason for the failure to bring about reform is Umno’s dependence on race and goodies for its survival.”

WEAKENED COALITION PARTNERS

Najib also faces huge problems rebuilding Umno’s coalition allies who also lost heavily in the 2008 elections.

The MCA, the second biggest government party, is mired in a leadership battle that will climax at a special party meeting this weekend.

The MIC has just been through a leadership fight and shows few signs it is reconnecting with its voters after being annihilated in the 2008 elections.

Ethnic Chinese account for around 25 per cent of the population and ethnic Indians around 8 per cent.

Najib has sought to defuse racial tensions by launching a racially inclusive campaign called “1 Malaysia”, dismissed by critics as little more than a branding exercise.

“The strategy is to pledge a yet unsubstantiated programme of ‘1 Malaysia’ while on the ground running campaigns based on the outdated model of race and money,” Welsh said.

The Umno leader does not see much chance the Barisan will fare any better at the 2013 general election than it did in 2008, raising the prospect of a prolonged period of political uncertainty that will further unnerve investors.

“I foresee there will not be a change of government, but it will not be a strong vote for both sides and that is bad for the country.” – Reuters

Bernama Online | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-Oct-2009 — As the MCA’s “triple 10” Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) approaches – at 10am on the 10th day of the 10th month this Saturday – many party insiders believe the 2,377-odd central delegates who would be voting in it have more or less made up their minds.

This is despite the emergence of a socalled “third force” which wants the delegates to reject both MCA President Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat and suspended Deputy President Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek in Saturday’s EGM.

Talk about the “third force” emerged over the past few weeks but only Thursday did it surface at a press conference organised by Rasah Jaya branch chairman Tan Kah Choun.

Tan claimed the group had the backing of some central delegates as well as support from 13 former MCA leaders including Tun Dr Ling Liong Sik, Tan Sri Ong Ka Ting, Tan Sri Chan Kong Choy, Tan Sri Ting Chew Peh and Tan Sri Lee San Choon, although some of the leaders have denied their involvement.

Ting has openly denied that he is backing the group and was surprised that his name was implicated with it as its members had never contacted him to discuss about the matter.

“This is a baseless claim. It’s like fishing in murky water. I believe the delegates are mature, they know what to do. It is unfair, just because of their dispute, the two (Ong and Dr Chua) have to quit,” he said.

Despite this latest development, which some political observers believe was aimed to split the votes, some delegates said they had already made up their minds on what to do on that day but preferred to keep their choice close to their hearts.

“Most of us are already tired. We just want this to be over soon and the party move forward. You will know the result when we cast our votes this Saturday,” said a delegate from Johor.

MCA President Ong Tee Keat is said to have “taken the bull by the horns” when he sanctioned the Oct 10 EGM and accepted the five resolutions proposed by Dr Chua’s supporters to be tabled, which could see him being ousted along with his supporters.

Ong, who has been in crisis with Dr Chua since the party election last year, has to face the delegates who will judge whether his decisions were acceptable to the grassroots or otherwise.

However, recently, the party’s powerful decision making body, the Central Committee (CC), reduced Dr Chua’s sentence to just four years’ suspension but his supporters claimed this was unfair and vowed to overturn the decision at the EGM.

Some party delegates believe that the latest developments related to Port Klang Free Trade Zone (PKFZ) and news reports that claimed that Ong had been cleared from a RM10 million corruption case may favour him.

At least, in the public’s perception, Ong seems to be the person who should lead the party, as shown by the latest opinion poll released by Merdeka Centre For Opinion Research.

Titled “MCA political developments, BN reforms, PKFZ and perceptions on Pakatan Rakyat”, the result on the polls on MCA’s leadership showed overall Ong was favoured by 25.2 per cent of the 846 respondents to lead MCA as compared to only 5.8 per cent for Dr Chua.

The poll, which was carried out from Sept 29 Sept till Oct 4, also showed 32.2 per cent of its Chinese respondents preferred Ong to lead the party as compared to only 5.1 per cent who were in favour of Dr Chua.

However, Dr Chua’s supporters were still confident that they could win over the delegates, saying that “the response from the delegates is encouraging” and were heading toward a victory with all five motion being passed by the delegates.

The five resolutions are (1) a motion of no-confidence against Tee Keat (2) to annul the decision by the Presidential Council to expel Chua (3) to reinstate Chua as MCA Deputy President (4) to revoke any appointments including the Deputy President made before the EGM and (5) that no disciplinary action be taken against the EGM requisitionists.

Ong’s supporters claim the feedback from the ground was very clear as far as the first and second motions were concerned.

“I don’t think the no-confidence vote will be successful as many in the party want him to lead even though some of them don’t like him personally,” a party source said.

The same supporters said party members and delegates now had a better picture on what was going on in the party and support for him (Ong) had increased in the past week.

“The second resolution to annul the Presidential Council’s decision to sack Chua did not carry any more weight now as Dr Chua is only being suspended for four years.

“Before his suspension, the sentiments were strong and many delegates symphatised with Dr Chua, but after the CC decision, the situation changed,” the source added.

However, party insiders predicted the outcome of Saturday’s EGM would be razor thin as some delegates were not bothered with the outcome.

“We are concerned with the attendance rate. Some of the delegates have indicated that they might not attend,” a party insider said.

— BERNAMA

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-Oct-2009 – Umno appears headed for victory in this weekend’s Bagan Pinang vote, but a huge majority of voters in peninsular Malaysia disagree with Barisan Nasional’s (BN) choice of a tainted candidate, a new poll shows.

A poll by the independent Merdeka Center shows a whopping 87 per cent of voters surveyed disagreed with the choice of a candidate previously charged with vote buying.

The result of the survey suggests that a majority of Malaysian voters agree with the view put forward by former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad that Tan Sri Isa Samad should not have been nominated as BN’s candidate for the Bagan Pinang vote.

The former PM has been a vocal critic of the nomination of the former Negri Sembilan mentri besar who was punished with a three-year suspension after the party’s disciplinary board found him guilty of vote buying during the Umno elections in 2004.

But Isa has proven to be a popular choice in Bagan Pinang, a BN stronghold where the ruling coalition can count on a large bank of postal votes from army personnel.

Umno leaders are hoping that a convincing win this weekend will give the party a much needed boost as it would be BN’s first by-election victory in peninsular Malaysia since Election 2008.

Party leaders are hoping that a win would help rally the party faithful to help fend off Pakatan Rakyat’s (PR) challenge to BN rule.

But critics, chief among them Dr Mahathir, have argued that winning with a tainted leader like Isa would send out the wrong message to voters nationally.

Prior to Isa’s nomination, Dr Mahathir had said that nominating Isa would show that Umno had not learned its lessons. He also added that having a candidate like Isa, who had been involved with corruption, did not speak well for Umno and BN.

The Merdeka Center suggests voters agree with him. The same poll also showed that voters are intolerant of sex scandals. A whopping 75 per cent of those polled said they did not agree that a leader tainted by a sex scandal should lead a major political party.

This comes as MCA holds an EGM this weekend in which party delegates will ultimately choose whether to back Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat or Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek. Dr Chua was secretly filmed having sex with his mistress and the recording was leaked in late 2007.

Ong has also been affected by allegations of graft after he was accused of accepting a RM10 million donation and taking free rides on private jets owned by a company being investigated by his ministry.

According to the Merdeka Center, a total of 846 registered voters were randomly selected for the poll. The margin of error was 3.4 per cent.

Malaysian Mirror | SHAH ALAM, 20-July-2009 – The majority of the people of Selangor appears to be happy with the Pakatan Rakyat state government, according to a survey.

The poll, conducted by the Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research, also revealed high approval ratings for Selangor Menteri Besar, Abdul Khalid Ibrahim.

It was carried out between June 5 and June 15, 2009 and the results show that 60 per cent of Selangor citizens feel that the state is heading in the right direction.

A total of 63 per cent are satisfied with performance of the menteri besar while 19 per cent expressed dissatisfaction.

Some 64 per cent of Selangor citizens are satisfied with the Selangor Pakatan Rakyat government’s performance after winning the March 2008 General Elections, while 22 per cent are dissatisfied.

Efficient administration

Broken down into ethnic groups, the survey found 59 per cent of Malays, 69 per cent of the Chinese and 69 per cent of Indians expressing satisfaction.

Based on the feedback, reasons leading to the people’s good ratings include the state’s welfare programmes, transparent and efficient administration and reduction of corruption.

Within 100 days of its administration, the state introduced its Merakyatkan Ekonomi Selangor agenda which includes several welfare programmes.

They include Tabung Warisan Anak Selangor, Skim Mesra Usia Emas, free water of 20 cubic metres for all residents, an education fund for children of plantation workers and Hadiah Anak Masuk Universiti.

As for the state government’s ability in the management and administration of the state’s economy, 58 per cent said that they are satisfied – out of which 13 per cent were very confident while 45 per cent somewhat confident.

Better service delivery

The state government commissioned Merdeka Centre to conduct the survey with the objective of assessing the rakyat’s views and perceptions of its performance and gauge the effectiveness of its programmes.

The survey also identified several areas that the state will need to improve upon, including its communication outlets, creating awareness of its various programmes, reduction of bureaucratic red tape and better service delivery for the people.

Meanwhile, the Selangor state government says it is thankful for the confidence and trust expressed by the people of the state towards its performance and views the results as an encouragement for the state leadership to further improve its administration in line with its Merakyatkan Ekonomi Selangor agenda.

The Star Online | 19-July-2009 – PRIME Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak received a tremendous boost recently when his rating approval was reported to be at 65%, up from 46% in mid-May and 42% when he first took office in April.

These ratings were reported by the Merdeka Center which conducted the survey in conjunction with Najib’s first 100 days in office. This survey, along with many others, has put Merdeka Center in the limelight, especially when it comes to gauging political sentiments.

Their research is quoted extensively by both print and electronic media organisations, lending them credibility.

How did this come to be? What role does the centre play and who is behind it?

“We wanted to conduct surveys on our own and not depend on anyone,” says Merdeka Center’s head Ibrahim Suffian, who started the business in 2001 with his friend Hazman Hamid.

“We felt surveys were needed to understand what was going on in the country. We saw it as an opportunity and a service,” says Ibrahim, adding that Merdeka Center is independent and self-funded and though profit is not the main motive, it has to be self-sustaining.

He felt the need for such a service as such information was not freely available.

Today, the company is regularly commissioned by various organisations such as government agencies that want to gauge consumer sentiments and how people perceive public services.

They also conduct surveys for companies that want to enhance their reputation and services.

But the company only started making headway in 2004 when it conducted surveys just before the general election, says Ibrahim.

“Before that, we did things on our own, such as opinion polls ahead of by-elections. We conducted surveys of about 300 to 400 people to get a sense on how to perfect the method. We were not in it full time before 2004.”

Ibrahim says the centre’s main interest is to look at issues as they happen and to see how people react to them.

“We are interested to see if one can develop measurements in public opinion, whether people are satisfied or dissatisfied with a particular service. If we can do this for commercial purposes, then we can definitely do this for the Government because the same is done in other countries,” he shares.

But Ibrahim says that was not the case.

“People will say members of the Chinese community are reluctant to speak out on issues to others. But you can call people and ask them about policies regarding Chinese schools, for example, and very rarely do you get a situation where they don’t respond. Almost 99% respond. They have an opinion on the issue and are not scared to voice it.”

He says there are only certain types of questions which people wouldn’t respond to. For example, non-Muslim respondents would not answer questions about Sekolah Agama Rakyat because they do not know about the issue.

When it comes to questions about political leaders, however, there is some hesitancy to speak out.

“We find that people don’t want to speak out negatively about others, especially to strangers. It is not unique to Malaysians, though. It is just a social condition,” he says.

Ibrahim stresses that the centre only reports its findings and comments on the subject being studied.

“Personal opinions are kept out of the findings. We try not to give too much interpretation to it. We let the people decide for themselves.”

The centre’s team consists of people from various backgrounds such as economics, public relations, statistics and political science. Ibrahim himself comes from a finance and marketing background.

“We need to understand how things are within the political and social stable,” he says.

According to Ibrahim, the aftermath of the 2008 general election was a very interesting time for them.

“People wanted to understand what happened. We got a chance to conduct some very interesting surveys, such as finding out why voters decide the way they did.

“To some extent, what we uncovered in the surveys tend to indicate the trend as shown in the election itself,” he adds.

So while the centre’s research is seen as credible by many, Ibrahim admits that there are some who criticise them, especially when their survey results are critical of the Govern ment.

So much so that many people think they are linked to the Opposition.

“We are not interested in the political personalities but in what people think of them. The polls can be a useful tool for both the Government and Opposition to find better ways to serve the rakyat.

“We just want to track data over time and build up knowledge on what makes society works and makes them tick.”

He says that the centre conducts major surveys on a quarterly basis. These surveys are related to the current economic, political and social scenarios.

Some of these surveys include the recently concluded Najib’s first 100 days, a 2008 voter opinion poll, Perak opinion voter poll and Media Independence Survey.

Ibrahim says they have to also deal with perceptions that they were influencing public opinion for favours from certain parties.

“At the end of the day, a personality or organisation is measured by its own conduct. An opinion poll is just a snapshot of what people think at that point of time. And public opinion constantly evolves … depending on your own action or inaction,” says Ibrahim.

And despite that, they have not been told to stop or tone down their surveys.

“Typically, they would call to ask for more information or to clarify the meaning and the implications of the survey. There are different shades of acceptance. Some take it constructively while others think they are always right.”

He says that Indonesia has a dozen polling organisations and they are more advanced, conducting polls at the national and municipal levels. Thailand has five such organisations while the Philippines has two.

“It is natural in long-developed democracies to gauge public opinion,” says Ibrahim.

Another common criticism of the centre is the sample size of their surveys.

“People ask how 1,000 people can represent a country of 27 million or 11 million voters. The accuracy of the survey does not depend on the size of the sample but its representation. It’s how you select the people to become respondents.

“You can conduct a survey among 5,000 or 10,000 people and still get skewed results if they are not randomly selected or don’t follow certain standards,” says Ibrahim.

He adds that although they randomly selected respondents from the electoral list or phone book, there were certain standards to adhere to, and there has to be a right proportion and distribution of people from the right location, right age group and ethnic mix.

So what does the Merdeka Center aim to achieve ultimately?

“Our aim is to help our democracy mature, to make the Government more accountable to people, and allow the people to have a say in what goes on,” says Ibrahim.

Philippine Daily Inquirer | 18-July-2009 – Malaysia’s new Prime Minister Najib Rajak, who has just completed his first hundred days in office, must be pleased with the new poll of the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research, that last July 8th reported public satisfaction with his performance at 65 percent, up from 45 percent in May, “thanks to a raft of announcements relating to economic policies, an inclusive message on inter-community unity via his One Malaysia concept, as well as conciliatory gestures over Malay unity.”

The Merdeka report was based on a scientific survey of 1,060 registered voters (age 21+) over June 19 to July 1 in peninsular Malaysia (i.e., excluding Sabah and Sarawak), for a 3 percent error margin. In line with the racial demographics of Malaysia, the sample consisted of 600 Malays, 355 Chinese, and 105 Indians, interviewed by telephone in Bahasa Malaysia, Mandarin, Tamil, or English.

Highlights of the Merdeka poll. For almost all social, political, and economic analysis in Malaysia, the most relevant category is race. Here are the new percentages satisfied versus dissatisfied with the way Najib is performing his job as prime minister: Malays 74-17, Chinese 48-31, Indians 74-22. The average of these numbers, 65-22, is the score for peninsular Malaysia as a whole. The balances from 100 percent are don’t knows and non-responses.

Percentages of confidence versus non-confidence in Najib’s ability to bring about reforms needed by the country: Malays 48-29, Chinese 32-23, and Indians 47-18. The average is 43-26, with a large 30 percent unable to respond.

Confidence versus non-confidence in Najib’s ability to manage the economy: Malays 74-16, Chinese 35-38, and Indians 79-18. The average score is 62-24.

Confidence versus non-confidence that Najib’s announced stimulus package will boost the economy: Malays 64-25, Chinese 22-52, and Indians 64-23. The average is 59-34.

However, as to those expecting to personally benefit versus those expecting not to benefit from Najib’s stimulus package, Malays are divided at 48-43, Chinese are very pessimistic at 15-77, and Indians are a bit optimistic at 58-30. The resulting average of 37-53 is generally negative as to personal benefit from the stimulus.

Majorities of 71 percent of Malays and 72 percent of Indians, but only 40 percent of Chinese, say they are confident that Najib will be able to improve race relations in Malaysia.

Although three out of four have heard of “One Malaysia” (Malays 81 percent, Chinese 72 percent, Indians 63 percent), 39 percent can’t articulate it. Twenty-three percent say it means “unity among the races,” 18 percent say it is “fairness and equality among the races,” and 6 percent call it “Malaysia as one nation, no differentiation of races.”

The Merdeka poll also has percentages of confidence versus non-confidence in certain government functions under Najib. Confidence prevails on efficiency of public service delivery (58-32), and the elections commission (51-34). On the police, opinion is neutral (46-45). Confidence is lacking regarding the judiciary (39-43), the anti-corruption agency (41-46), and timely government project implementation (38-45).

The Merdeka Center (www.merdeka.org) is an independent, non-partisan organization with the mission of acting as a bridge between ordinary Malaysians and leading members of the nation, by dispassionate presentations of its research. It is headed by Ibrahim Suffian (ben@merdeka.org).

Asian Barometer and satisfaction with the working of democracy. The Merdeka Center and Social Weather Stations are co-members of Asian Barometer (www.asianbarometer.org), an applied research program on public opinion on political values, democracy, and governance in the region.

This network includes research teams from Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Each team does a national survey, under a common methodology, to ensure reliability and comparability of the data. There have been two waves of Asian Barometer surveys so far.

Among the many items in Asian Barometer, I like to pay close attention to the percentage very/fairly satisfied with how democracy is working in the country. This item is now standard in all regional barometers of the globe.

For the five original Asean countries in particular, the 2005/06 wave of Asian Barometer found the percentage of people satisfied with the working of their democracy to be highest in Singapore (83) and Thailand (79), somewhat less in Malaysia (66; from Merdeka) and Indonesia (59), and comparatively quite low in the Philippines (38; from SWS).

I see this survey indicator not as characterizing Filipinos in general, but describing how well (or how poorly) Philippine political institutions operate at certain points in time. From about 45 SWS national surveys, done since 1991, one can see satisfaction with the working of democracy as highly related to elections. The percentage peaked at 70 after the presidential elections of 1992 and 1998, but was a disappointingly low 44 after that of 2004. It resurged to 54 after the 2007 election, but afterwards slipped back to the thirties again. I hope it will peak once more in mid-2010, since that would signify popular satisfaction with the election process.

Given the Philippine experience, I assume that the working of democracy is likewise dynamic in other countries. The next wave of Asian Barometer, tentatively set for 2010, will enable us to compare notes again with the Merdeka Center and other survey colleagues in Asia.

* * *

Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.

The Malaysian Insider | SHAH ALAM, 17-July-2009 — A recent survey in Selangor shows that 60 per cent of those polled feel that the state is heading in the right direction while 63 per cent are satisfied with the performance of the mentri besar.

The survey, conducted by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research between June 5 and 15, found that only 19 per cent of those polled in Selangor expressed dissatisfaction.

The survey was commissioned by the state and the release of its findings today is seen as a move to counter calls by Bukit Antarabangsa state lawmaker Azmin Ali for a reshuffle in the administration of MB Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim.

PKR’s Azmin, who expressed a litany of complaints against the Selangor government, made the call at the State Legislative Assembly on Friday.

The survey indicated 64 per cent of those polled were satisfied with the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) state government’s performance after winning in Election 2008, with 22 per cent expressing dissatisfaction.

59 per cent of Malays polled, together with 69 per cent of the Chinese and Indians indicated satisfaction.

The reasons given for the favourable ratings include the state’s welfare programmes, transparent and efficient administration, and the reduction of corruption.

The survey also found 58 per cent were also satisfied with the state government’s ability to manage and administer Selangor’s economy — 13 per cent responded they are very confident while 45 per cent said they were somewhat confident.

According to a spokesman, the State Government commissioned Merdeka Centre to conduct the survey in order to assess people’s views and perceptions of its performance.

However the survey indicated the Selangor still needs to improve its communication and delivery to the people, while reducing red tape.

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 16-July-2009 — Selangor, the jewel in the crown for Pakatan Rakyat (PR), looks to be losing its lustre for the opposition coalition.

A row has broken out between Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and the DAP — two of the three components of the coalition — stemming from PKR vice-president Azmin Ali’s call last Wednesday for some of his own colleagues to be kicked out of the state assembly. Azmin is opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s right-hand man in the PR alliance.

“Maybe it’s time for the mentri besar to consider an exco reshuffle for the people to be served better,” he said. The exco refers to the state executive council or state Cabinet.

Some observers were not surprised by Azmin’s action as it was well-known that the Bukit Antarabangsa lawmaker was unhappy with the state government line-up.

There was also talk that Azmin was eyeing the mentri besar’s post because he felt that incumbent Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim did not have enough political experience. Khalid was a corporate leader before joining PKR.

At a press conference on Monday, Azmin refused to confirm or deny that he wanted to be the MB, telling reporters: “I have no response to that.”

He has latched on to unhappiness on the ground with the recent appointment of local councillors to push for a reshuffle in the state exco.

Reports said the appointment of several councillors to the Ampang Municipal Council and the Shah Alam City Council had irked many local leaders as they were not consulted over the selection.

In fact, a group of PKR members rallied at one of Anwar’s ceramahs in Selangor, handing a memorandum to Azmin over the issue.

Khalid had already been summoned by top PKR leaders to discuss the unhappiness on the ground with the appointment of local councillors, according to the Star.

Temperatures were raised further on Monday in the state assembly with a shouting match between Azmin and Teresa Kok, an exco councillor.

Azmin took issue with a statement by Kok that his call for a reshuffle was “arrogant”.

Kok, along with fellow DAP state councillor Ronnie Liu, on Monday also slammed PKR lawmaker Wee Choo Keong, who had come out in support of Azmin.

Wee said last Saturday that the call for a reshuffle was timely, adding that he had received complaints too.

Then, in a bombshell disclosure, he said that it was an “open secret” that a state executive councillor had links with the underworld.

Wee, who left the DAP after a falling out with party members, did not name the official.

Liu demanded that Wee name the official but the latter said he would do so only “at an appropriate time”.

“Rumours can hurt and kill,” Liu said, declining further comment on the matter.

The police have begun investigations into the allegations.

Analysts say such public squabbles are unhealthy and are affecting the opposition’s image.

“Too many frictions may indicate that the coalition members lack self-discipline and mutual respect for one another,” said political analyst Khoo Kay Peng.

In fact, most of the controversies and issues in PR were self-inflicted, he said.

“The recent conflicts in Kedah, Penang and Selangor exposed a lack of mutual understanding, a weak coalition partnership and a mutual distrust between the DAP, PKR and PAS,” he wrote in the Malaysiakini news portal.

DAP stalwart Lim Kit Siang has called for the PR to set up a disciplinary committee to “restore public confidence in the opposition coalition’s cohesion, coherence, discipline, unity and common sense of purpose”.

Despite the latest controversy, independent pollster Merdeka Center yesterday released a survey showing 65 per cent of respondents were happy with Khalid’s performance.

Another 60 per cent said the PKR-led state government was heading in the right direction.

Top PR leaders will be holding a leadership council meeting tomorrow to iron out their differences. — The Straits