The Star Online | 19-July-2009 – PRIME Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak received a tremendous boost recently when his rating approval was reported to be at 65%, up from 46% in mid-May and 42% when he first took office in April.
These ratings were reported by the Merdeka Center which conducted the survey in conjunction with Najib’s first 100 days in office. This survey, along with many others, has put Merdeka Center in the limelight, especially when it comes to gauging political sentiments.
Their research is quoted extensively by both print and electronic media organisations, lending them credibility.
How did this come to be? What role does the centre play and who is behind it?
“We wanted to conduct surveys on our own and not depend on anyone,” says Merdeka Center’s head Ibrahim Suffian, who started the business in 2001 with his friend Hazman Hamid.
“We felt surveys were needed to understand what was going on in the country. We saw it as an opportunity and a service,” says Ibrahim, adding that Merdeka Center is independent and self-funded and though profit is not the main motive, it has to be self-sustaining.
He felt the need for such a service as such information was not freely available.
Today, the company is regularly commissioned by various organisations such as government agencies that want to gauge consumer sentiments and how people perceive public services.
They also conduct surveys for companies that want to enhance their reputation and services.
But the company only started making headway in 2004 when it conducted surveys just before the general election, says Ibrahim.
“Before that, we did things on our own, such as opinion polls ahead of by-elections. We conducted surveys of about 300 to 400 people to get a sense on how to perfect the method. We were not in it full time before 2004.”
Ibrahim says the centre’s main interest is to look at issues as they happen and to see how people react to them.
“We are interested to see if one can develop measurements in public opinion, whether people are satisfied or dissatisfied with a particular service. If we can do this for commercial purposes, then we can definitely do this for the Government because the same is done in other countries,” he shares.
But Ibrahim says that was not the case.
“People will say members of the Chinese community are reluctant to speak out on issues to others. But you can call people and ask them about policies regarding Chinese schools, for example, and very rarely do you get a situation where they don’t respond. Almost 99% respond. They have an opinion on the issue and are not scared to voice it.”
He says there are only certain types of questions which people wouldn’t respond to. For example, non-Muslim respondents would not answer questions about Sekolah Agama Rakyat because they do not know about the issue.
When it comes to questions about political leaders, however, there is some hesitancy to speak out.
“We find that people don’t want to speak out negatively about others, especially to strangers. It is not unique to Malaysians, though. It is just a social condition,” he says.
Ibrahim stresses that the centre only reports its findings and comments on the subject being studied.
“Personal opinions are kept out of the findings. We try not to give too much interpretation to it. We let the people decide for themselves.”
The centre’s team consists of people from various backgrounds such as economics, public relations, statistics and political science. Ibrahim himself comes from a finance and marketing background.
“We need to understand how things are within the political and social stable,” he says.
According to Ibrahim, the aftermath of the 2008 general election was a very interesting time for them.
“People wanted to understand what happened. We got a chance to conduct some very interesting surveys, such as finding out why voters decide the way they did.
“To some extent, what we uncovered in the surveys tend to indicate the trend as shown in the election itself,” he adds.
So while the centre’s research is seen as credible by many, Ibrahim admits that there are some who criticise them, especially when their survey results are critical of the Govern ment.
So much so that many people think they are linked to the Opposition.
“We are not interested in the political personalities but in what people think of them. The polls can be a useful tool for both the Government and Opposition to find better ways to serve the rakyat.
“We just want to track data over time and build up knowledge on what makes society works and makes them tick.”
He says that the centre conducts major surveys on a quarterly basis. These surveys are related to the current economic, political and social scenarios.
Some of these surveys include the recently concluded Najib’s first 100 days, a 2008 voter opinion poll, Perak opinion voter poll and Media Independence Survey.
Ibrahim says they have to also deal with perceptions that they were influencing public opinion for favours from certain parties.
“At the end of the day, a personality or organisation is measured by its own conduct. An opinion poll is just a snapshot of what people think at that point of time. And public opinion constantly evolves … depending on your own action or inaction,” says Ibrahim.
And despite that, they have not been told to stop or tone down their surveys.
“Typically, they would call to ask for more information or to clarify the meaning and the implications of the survey. There are different shades of acceptance. Some take it constructively while others think they are always right.”
He says that Indonesia has a dozen polling organisations and they are more advanced, conducting polls at the national and municipal levels. Thailand has five such organisations while the Philippines has two.
“It is natural in long-developed democracies to gauge public opinion,” says Ibrahim.
Another common criticism of the centre is the sample size of their surveys.
“People ask how 1,000 people can represent a country of 27 million or 11 million voters. The accuracy of the survey does not depend on the size of the sample but its representation. It’s how you select the people to become respondents.
“You can conduct a survey among 5,000 or 10,000 people and still get skewed results if they are not randomly selected or don’t follow certain standards,” says Ibrahim.
He adds that although they randomly selected respondents from the electoral list or phone book, there were certain standards to adhere to, and there has to be a right proportion and distribution of people from the right location, right age group and ethnic mix.
So what does the Merdeka Center aim to achieve ultimately?
“Our aim is to help our democracy mature, to make the Government more accountable to people, and allow the people to have a say in what goes on,” says Ibrahim.