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The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 09-Nov-2009 — When the Pakatan Rakyat government in Perak was unseated through defections in February, the local people were clearly unhappy.

But just how unhappy?

The independent pollster, Merdeka Centre, did a survey in the state to find out.

Its poll found that half the Malay respondents believed the palace’s decision to install a Barisan Nasional (BN) government, instead of calling for fresh polls, was in line with the people’s wishes. In contrast, a whopping 82 per cent of the Chinese said it was not. That would have been that, except for the oddest twist of fate.

A Perak MP died of a heart attack, triggering a by-election in Bukit Gantang two months later.

The election result tallied with the survey findings. The Malay vote for the BN came in at around 55 per cent, while the Chinese support was a low 22 per cent. It rarely happens as neatly as this, but this was one example of how polling can be a fair measure of the Malaysian political pulse.

Political polling is still fairly new in Malaysia, although there has always been some form of pulse-checking. Umno, for instance, had grassroots systems which had one party member taking care of 10 voters in their village. This used to be very effective. But that system broke down spectacularly in last year’s general election.

The BN did not have an inkling of the massive ground shift that dealt it the worst electoral showing in 50 years. Its village methods had failed in an urban setting — and more than 60 per cent of Malaysians now live in urban centres.

That was when independent polling received a boost as it appeared more reliable than in-house sources and party intelligence. Even before the general election, Merdeka Centre had published several surveys that revealed a sense of Chinese and Indian unhappiness. Not enough attention was paid to the findings, and the BN paid a heavy price in terms of seats.

“Polling is extremely important so that you don’t risk fooling yourself with internal bias. That said, it can still be a challenge to base decisions on poll results because of other pressures,” said Nelleita Omar, managing director of Vox Malaysia.

Vox Malaysia is the newest polling and consulting firm in the country. It is run by ex-policy staffers from former premier Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s office.

The interest in poll data is certainly noticeable now. Ibrahim Suffian, director of Merdeka Centre, said there was a surge of interest immediately after last year’s March 8 general election. Shell- shocked political parties were scrambling for answers, and the public also sought to make sense of the topsy-turvy landscape. This started to change public discourse.

“People were not clear about the mood before. But when we started to publish our surveys, it changed the debate because there’s now the ability to quantify sentiments,” said Ibrahim.

It does seep into the debate, going by the chatter online. People may not discuss surveys, but the data they provide helps shape arguments to some extent. But polling, which is still in its infancy in Malaysia, does not yet have the reach to influence public opinion. The impact on public policymakers is also relatively low, compared to, say, private companies which have wide experience with using polling data to position their products.

“In politics, it’s a lot harder. The span of products, if you like, is very wide. But it’s the same principle, you have to find the key issues and zoom in,” said Nelleita.

She said while polling had become more visible in recent years, there is still a gap between retrieving data and using it to structure policies.

It is the political parties that have begun to use the data strategically. DAP election strategist Liew Chin Tong said while they realise it is not an exact science, polls can yield useful information if they are properly done and interpreted. “It’s a snapshot at a particular time, and political sentiment is notoriously fluid. But if it’s consistently monitored, it can be a fair reflection of ground feeling,” he said.

In the last general election, Liew said, the opposition parties had taken several good decisions partly influenced by polling data.

One, the three parties decided not to form a coalition then but to work together in an electoral pact. Polling had indicated that voters were not ready for an official alliance but also did not want the opposition to fight one another. Two, the parties avoided campaigning on a platform of winning federal power because surveys showed that this would discomfit voters. Both strategies worked.

“It’s not good to be too dependent on polls as they are never accurate, but they can show part of the picture and be one of the many tools,” said Liew.

The accuracy of polling is always an issue, of course. That depends largely on the expertise with which it is carried out, the frequency, and the skill in reading the data. Still, it looks like political polling is here to stay — and grow. As Ibrahim noted, the 2008 election has changed the Malaysian mindset significantly. There’s a distinct loosening of what he called “brand loyalty”.

“People look for quality, and that has changed the way politicians have to react to them,” he said.

Malaysians have also become more vocal, and pollsters see far less of the frustrating blank looks and shrugs in response to surveys. Everyone has an opinion now; the question is how to read it. — The Straits Times

The Star Online | PETALING JAYA, 09-October-2009 : A Merdeka Centre poll found that MCA president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat was the preferred choice to lead the party instead of suspended deputy president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek.

Almost one third (32.2% ) of the 273 respondents from the Chinese community indicated that they preferred Ong over Dr Chua who polled 5.1%.

Among the 146 Chinese respondents who said they cared about the MCA problem, 60% of them said their choice was Ong while 9.6% wanted Dr Chua.

The Merdeka Centre polled a total of 846 respondents of all races, who were asked for their views about leaders who were corrupt and marred by scandals.

It found that 64% of them strongly disagreed that a leader tainted by sex scandal could lead a major political party while 76% strongly disagreed that a leader charged with money politics in party elections should be allowed to contest in a by-election or general election.

The poll also asked for their perception of the problems faced by the MCA to which 64% of all Chinese respondents felt that it was an internal affair of the party. Asked on their views on MCA’s reforms, 39% of the 846 respondents in peninsular Malaysia felt that its leaders should give priority to resolving the in-fighting.

Another 27% of the respondents wanted the party to focus on regaining the confidence of all Malaysians, while 10% of them wanted the party to win back the confidence of the Chinese community.

The poll also touched on Barisan Nasional reforms, the PKFZ controversy and perceptions of Pakatan Rakyat. The respondents also felt that MCA leaders should concentrate on resolving in-fighting in the party the most.

About 34% of the respondents felt that unless Umno carried out reforms extensively, changes in other component parties would mean little.

Channel News Asia | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-October-2009 : Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak’s popularity ratings have dropped, according to a poll released on Thursday which indicated that excitement over his appointment six months ago had faded.

The Merdeka Centre research firm said that 56 per cent of 1,027 people surveyed were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with Najib’s performance as premier, down from the 65 per cent support he enjoyed in June.

The boost in his polls numbers in June had been attributed to a series of economic reforms, and an olive branch extended to ethnic minorities in the multicultural nation during his first 100 days in office.

“People are settling down after the initial euphoria over a new prime minister when he made a lot of announcements,” Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian told AFP.

Ibrahim said the ruling coalition now needs a boost from a victory in a by-election this weekend, when it is seeking to break a winning streak by the opposition which has won seven out of eight special votes held over the past year.

The seat of Bagan Pinang in the parliament of central Negri Sembilan state is currently held by Najib’s coalition, and it is credited with a strong chance of retaining the seat.

The opposition will be represented by a candidate from the conservative Islamic party PAS, one of three component parties in the alliance.

The Merdeka Centre survey showed Najib’s support had fallen among all ethnic groups in Malaysia, which is dominated by majority Muslim Malays, but also home to large ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities.

Najib has been partly dismantling a decades-old system of positive discrimination for Malays, who enjoyed benefits in education, housing and jobs, which had previously been seen as a political taboo.

He has also said that he is intent on reclaiming the support of minorities, who shifted to the opposition in elections a year ago which dealt the ruling coalition its worst results in half a century.

– AFP/so

Sin Chew Jit Poh | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-October-2009 (The Malaysian Insider) — Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s approval rating has fallen slightly, with 56 per cent of Malaysians satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister, compared with a high of 65 per cent in June, according to a new poll released today.

The poll, conducted by the independent Merdeka Center to mark Najib’s sixth month as PM, showed that many Malaysians found his efforts at reducing corruption and crime still wanting.

But a majority of those polled are satisfied with Najib’s efforts in improving the education system, managing the economy and raising government efficiency.

Overall, the survey found that the number of people dissatisfied with Najib’s performance as PM remained about the same at 23 per cent, compared with 22 per cent in June.

The Merdeka Center said the poll was conducted by telephone among 1027 randomly selected registered voters from Sept 4-14. The margin of error is 3.06 per cent.

A total of 60 per cent of the respondents were Malay, 30 per cent Chinese and nine per cent Indians.

Overall, 47 per cent of respondents felt the country was headed in the right direction and 34 per cent said it was headed in the wrong direction. The rest, at 19 per cent, did not respond.

Broken down along race lines, 59 per cent of Malays felt the country was headed in the right direction, compared with 18 per cent of Chinese and 70 per cent of Indians.

On the PM’s job approval rating, 64 per cent of Malay voters were satisfied, with 21 per cent dissatisfied while 15 per cent did not respond.

Among the Chinese respondents, 36 per cent were satisfied with Najib, 25 per cent dissatisfied while 38 per cent did not respond.

Among Indians, 68 per cent were satisfied, 27 per cent dissatisfied while five per cent did not respond.

A total of 48 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with Najib’s efforts in reducing the crime rate with only 39 per cent satisfied.

On efforts to reduce corruption, 50 per cent were dissatisfied while only 35 per cent were satisfied.

Najib scored better in the areas of education, the economy and improving government efficiency.

Among respondents, 56 per cent were satisfied with his performance in improving the education system, compared with 29 per cent who were dissatisfied.

On improving government efficiency, 54 per cent of respondents were satisfied while only 29 per cent were dissatisfied.

A total of 52 per cent of respondents were happy with Najib’s handling of the economy with only 30 per cent dissatisfied. (By Leslie Lau/ The Malaysian Insider)

08-October-2009, The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 8 – A majority of voters in peninsular Malaysia remain unconvinced Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is a viable alternative to Barisan Nasional (BN) to rule the country at federal level although they are largely satisfied with the way states under the fledgling coalition is being administered, a new poll shows.

The poll conducted by the independent Merdeka Center from Sept 29-Oct 4 showed 47 per cent of registered voters in peninsular Malaysia were unconvinced PR was a viable alternative to BN while 32 per cent are convinced.

However, 21 per cent of respondents did not offer a response, suggesting a large swing vote was still up for grabs.

The Merdeka Center poll also suggests that Malay voters tipped the balance against PR in the survey, with 56 per cent of respondents from the community unconvinced by PR compared with just 25 per cent who thought PR could rule at federal level. A total of 19 per cent of Malay voters did not respond.

A majority of Chinese and Indian voters, however, were convinced PR could be a viable alternative to BN. Some 43 per cent of Chinese respondents and 42 per cent of Indian voters are convinced with PR. However, 31 per cent of Chinese voters and 38 per cent of Indian respondents remain unconvinced with PR.

The survey also suggested that even in states with strong PR support, voters were not convinced the alliance could rule at federal level.

In Kuala Lumpur, where the majority of MPs are from PR, 57 per cent of respondents were unconvinced with PR with only 28 per cent convinced.

In Kelantan, ruled by PAS since 1990, just 38 per cent of respondents from the state were convinced a PR federal government was viable compared with 41 per cent of voters who did not.

Only in Penang, which is now ruled by a DAP-led PR government, were a majority of voters convinced a PR federal government was viable. A total of 49 per cent of respondents in Penang were convinced compared with 30 per cent who were not.

The picture was more positive for the PR coalition at state level. Overall, 46 per cent of respondents were satisfied with the performance of the four PR state governments in Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Selangor. Some 34 per cent are dissatisfied while 20 per cent did not respond.

Broken down along state lines, PR’s approval rating as state administrators was 56 per cent in Penang, 52 per cent in Selangor, 50 per cent in Kelantan and 48 per cent in Kedah.

In Perak, which is now a BN state following the February power grab, 42 per cent of respondents there were satisfied with PR’s performance in states it still controls.

In Kuala Lumpur, which has no state government, 61 per cent believed PR was doing a satisfactory job at state level.

Along ethnic lines, only 33 per cent of Malay respondents were satisfied with PR state governments, compared with 47 per cent who were dissatisfied. A total of 65 per cent of Chinese respondents were happy with PR state governments while 58 per cent of Indian voters were satisfied.

According to the Merdeka Center, a total of 846 registered voters were randomly selected for the poll. The margin of error was 3.4 per cent.

By Leslie Lau
Consultant Editor

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-October-2009 – Prime Minister Najib Razak heads into his party’s annual meeting next week promising reforms to stem corruption in a bid to reignite the waning appeal of a government that has ruled for 52 years.

Najib is also hoping for victory on Sunday in a safe state seat to stem a series of by-election losses his governing coalition has suffered since last year’s poll debacle, in which it stumbled to record losses in national and state polls.

Umno will applaud Najib if a former Cabinet minister, sacked in 2004 for buying votes, wins the seat – before they turn their attention to party reforms aimed at eliminating the kind of “money politics” and corruption that has long tainted Umno’s image.

Corruption has seen a generation of young Malays desert Umno, the party of their parents, in favour of the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), which promotes both an Islamic state and a strong anti-graft stance in this ethnically mixed Southeast Asian nation of 27 million people.

Although Najib, who has enacted economic reforms to boost foreign investment, initially saw a spike in his approval ratings to 65 per cent in July from 42 per cent before he took office in April, those numbers have not held up.

A poll by the independent Merdeka Center published on Friday showed Najib’s rating had fallen to 56 per cent in September and there are few signs younger voters are now embracing Umno.

“Now that another Malay party (PAS) is in power, they (Umno) seem to be sabotaging them, creating all sort of problems,” said Yusuff Ismail, a 35-year old sales clerk in northwestern Kedah state, one of the four states to fall to the opposition in 2008.

“This divides the Malays more,” Yusuff said. “More people will vote for PAS because at least we know they are cleaner.”

While Najib’s economic reforms have chipped away at a three-decade old affirmative action programme that gives Malays – 55 per cent of the population – preferences in company ownership, government contracts, education and housing, tough areas have not yet been touched.

The government has recently been hit by a multi-billion dollar corruption scandal over the construction of a free trade zone in the country’s biggest port. Critics have charged it has been covered up.
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“What worries me is that Najib worries there could be more (corruption) incidents in Umno. Then it will be a problem he can’t control,” said a senior Umno official who leads one of the party’s 191 divisions, the frontline units of Malaysia’s biggest mass political party.

MONEY HAS NOT FOLLOWED PRAISE

Najib, who has pledged to return Malaysia to six per cent annual economic growth and to draw in more foreign investment, has won plaudits from investment banks for the economic reforms he has announced so far.

These reforms include reducing requirements that Malays own 30 per cent of listed companies, opening up the insurance and fund management industry and other service sectors.

While praise has flowed, money has not and foreign ownership of the equity market remains mired at a touch over 20 per cent, according to stock market data, its lowest level since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

An Oct 4 report from Deutsche Bank noted that despite what it termed “bold” reforms from Najib, some investors had reduced Malaysia’s equity market, once a regional leader, to a “rounding error” when making their portfolio allocations.

“Politics matters more than ever for this market, especially when investors’ confidence in Indonesia’s political system has improved significantly over the last month,” the report said.

Indonesia’s stock market is Asia’s best performing this year and has gained 86 per cent thanks to the re-election of reformist President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono while Malaysia’s market is Asia’s worst performing.

According to the Deutsche Bank report, government-related entities own 39.4 per cent of Malaysia’s equity market and that reduces the country’s attractiveness to fund managers.

Bolder reforms, such as moves to reduce the ownership of the state and state-linked pension funds in major companies, and slashing an overmanned civil service, will be much harder as they will have a direct impact on jobs for Malays, Umno’s voter base.

Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia expert at Singapore Management University, said bolder reforms risk alienating Umno’s core voters.

“The reason for the failure to bring about reform is Umno’s dependence on race and goodies for its survival.”

WEAKENED COALITION PARTNERS

Najib also faces huge problems rebuilding Umno’s coalition allies who also lost heavily in the 2008 elections.

The MCA, the second biggest government party, is mired in a leadership battle that will climax at a special party meeting this weekend.

The MIC has just been through a leadership fight and shows few signs it is reconnecting with its voters after being annihilated in the 2008 elections.

Ethnic Chinese account for around 25 per cent of the population and ethnic Indians around 8 per cent.

Najib has sought to defuse racial tensions by launching a racially inclusive campaign called “1 Malaysia”, dismissed by critics as little more than a branding exercise.

“The strategy is to pledge a yet unsubstantiated programme of ‘1 Malaysia’ while on the ground running campaigns based on the outdated model of race and money,” Welsh said.

The Umno leader does not see much chance the Barisan will fare any better at the 2013 general election than it did in 2008, raising the prospect of a prolonged period of political uncertainty that will further unnerve investors.

“I foresee there will not be a change of government, but it will not be a strong vote for both sides and that is bad for the country.” – Reuters

Bernama Online | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-Oct-2009 — As the MCA’s “triple 10” Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) approaches – at 10am on the 10th day of the 10th month this Saturday – many party insiders believe the 2,377-odd central delegates who would be voting in it have more or less made up their minds.

This is despite the emergence of a socalled “third force” which wants the delegates to reject both MCA President Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat and suspended Deputy President Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek in Saturday’s EGM.

Talk about the “third force” emerged over the past few weeks but only Thursday did it surface at a press conference organised by Rasah Jaya branch chairman Tan Kah Choun.

Tan claimed the group had the backing of some central delegates as well as support from 13 former MCA leaders including Tun Dr Ling Liong Sik, Tan Sri Ong Ka Ting, Tan Sri Chan Kong Choy, Tan Sri Ting Chew Peh and Tan Sri Lee San Choon, although some of the leaders have denied their involvement.

Ting has openly denied that he is backing the group and was surprised that his name was implicated with it as its members had never contacted him to discuss about the matter.

“This is a baseless claim. It’s like fishing in murky water. I believe the delegates are mature, they know what to do. It is unfair, just because of their dispute, the two (Ong and Dr Chua) have to quit,” he said.

Despite this latest development, which some political observers believe was aimed to split the votes, some delegates said they had already made up their minds on what to do on that day but preferred to keep their choice close to their hearts.

“Most of us are already tired. We just want this to be over soon and the party move forward. You will know the result when we cast our votes this Saturday,” said a delegate from Johor.

MCA President Ong Tee Keat is said to have “taken the bull by the horns” when he sanctioned the Oct 10 EGM and accepted the five resolutions proposed by Dr Chua’s supporters to be tabled, which could see him being ousted along with his supporters.

Ong, who has been in crisis with Dr Chua since the party election last year, has to face the delegates who will judge whether his decisions were acceptable to the grassroots or otherwise.

However, recently, the party’s powerful decision making body, the Central Committee (CC), reduced Dr Chua’s sentence to just four years’ suspension but his supporters claimed this was unfair and vowed to overturn the decision at the EGM.

Some party delegates believe that the latest developments related to Port Klang Free Trade Zone (PKFZ) and news reports that claimed that Ong had been cleared from a RM10 million corruption case may favour him.

At least, in the public’s perception, Ong seems to be the person who should lead the party, as shown by the latest opinion poll released by Merdeka Centre For Opinion Research.

Titled “MCA political developments, BN reforms, PKFZ and perceptions on Pakatan Rakyat”, the result on the polls on MCA’s leadership showed overall Ong was favoured by 25.2 per cent of the 846 respondents to lead MCA as compared to only 5.8 per cent for Dr Chua.

The poll, which was carried out from Sept 29 Sept till Oct 4, also showed 32.2 per cent of its Chinese respondents preferred Ong to lead the party as compared to only 5.1 per cent who were in favour of Dr Chua.

However, Dr Chua’s supporters were still confident that they could win over the delegates, saying that “the response from the delegates is encouraging” and were heading toward a victory with all five motion being passed by the delegates.

The five resolutions are (1) a motion of no-confidence against Tee Keat (2) to annul the decision by the Presidential Council to expel Chua (3) to reinstate Chua as MCA Deputy President (4) to revoke any appointments including the Deputy President made before the EGM and (5) that no disciplinary action be taken against the EGM requisitionists.

Ong’s supporters claim the feedback from the ground was very clear as far as the first and second motions were concerned.

“I don’t think the no-confidence vote will be successful as many in the party want him to lead even though some of them don’t like him personally,” a party source said.

The same supporters said party members and delegates now had a better picture on what was going on in the party and support for him (Ong) had increased in the past week.

“The second resolution to annul the Presidential Council’s decision to sack Chua did not carry any more weight now as Dr Chua is only being suspended for four years.

“Before his suspension, the sentiments were strong and many delegates symphatised with Dr Chua, but after the CC decision, the situation changed,” the source added.

However, party insiders predicted the outcome of Saturday’s EGM would be razor thin as some delegates were not bothered with the outcome.

“We are concerned with the attendance rate. Some of the delegates have indicated that they might not attend,” a party insider said.

— BERNAMA

The Malaysian Insider | KUALA LUMPUR, 08-Oct-2009 – Umno appears headed for victory in this weekend’s Bagan Pinang vote, but a huge majority of voters in peninsular Malaysia disagree with Barisan Nasional’s (BN) choice of a tainted candidate, a new poll shows.

A poll by the independent Merdeka Center shows a whopping 87 per cent of voters surveyed disagreed with the choice of a candidate previously charged with vote buying.

The result of the survey suggests that a majority of Malaysian voters agree with the view put forward by former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad that Tan Sri Isa Samad should not have been nominated as BN’s candidate for the Bagan Pinang vote.

The former PM has been a vocal critic of the nomination of the former Negri Sembilan mentri besar who was punished with a three-year suspension after the party’s disciplinary board found him guilty of vote buying during the Umno elections in 2004.

But Isa has proven to be a popular choice in Bagan Pinang, a BN stronghold where the ruling coalition can count on a large bank of postal votes from army personnel.

Umno leaders are hoping that a convincing win this weekend will give the party a much needed boost as it would be BN’s first by-election victory in peninsular Malaysia since Election 2008.

Party leaders are hoping that a win would help rally the party faithful to help fend off Pakatan Rakyat’s (PR) challenge to BN rule.

But critics, chief among them Dr Mahathir, have argued that winning with a tainted leader like Isa would send out the wrong message to voters nationally.

Prior to Isa’s nomination, Dr Mahathir had said that nominating Isa would show that Umno had not learned its lessons. He also added that having a candidate like Isa, who had been involved with corruption, did not speak well for Umno and BN.

The Merdeka Center suggests voters agree with him. The same poll also showed that voters are intolerant of sex scandals. A whopping 75 per cent of those polled said they did not agree that a leader tainted by a sex scandal should lead a major political party.

This comes as MCA holds an EGM this weekend in which party delegates will ultimately choose whether to back Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat or Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek. Dr Chua was secretly filmed having sex with his mistress and the recording was leaked in late 2007.

Ong has also been affected by allegations of graft after he was accused of accepting a RM10 million donation and taking free rides on private jets owned by a company being investigated by his ministry.

According to the Merdeka Center, a total of 846 registered voters were randomly selected for the poll. The margin of error was 3.4 per cent.

Malaysian Mirror | SHAH ALAM, 20-July-2009 – The majority of the people of Selangor appears to be happy with the Pakatan Rakyat state government, according to a survey.

The poll, conducted by the Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research, also revealed high approval ratings for Selangor Menteri Besar, Abdul Khalid Ibrahim.

It was carried out between June 5 and June 15, 2009 and the results show that 60 per cent of Selangor citizens feel that the state is heading in the right direction.

A total of 63 per cent are satisfied with performance of the menteri besar while 19 per cent expressed dissatisfaction.

Some 64 per cent of Selangor citizens are satisfied with the Selangor Pakatan Rakyat government’s performance after winning the March 2008 General Elections, while 22 per cent are dissatisfied.

Efficient administration

Broken down into ethnic groups, the survey found 59 per cent of Malays, 69 per cent of the Chinese and 69 per cent of Indians expressing satisfaction.

Based on the feedback, reasons leading to the people’s good ratings include the state’s welfare programmes, transparent and efficient administration and reduction of corruption.

Within 100 days of its administration, the state introduced its Merakyatkan Ekonomi Selangor agenda which includes several welfare programmes.

They include Tabung Warisan Anak Selangor, Skim Mesra Usia Emas, free water of 20 cubic metres for all residents, an education fund for children of plantation workers and Hadiah Anak Masuk Universiti.

As for the state government’s ability in the management and administration of the state’s economy, 58 per cent said that they are satisfied – out of which 13 per cent were very confident while 45 per cent somewhat confident.

Better service delivery

The state government commissioned Merdeka Centre to conduct the survey with the objective of assessing the rakyat’s views and perceptions of its performance and gauge the effectiveness of its programmes.

The survey also identified several areas that the state will need to improve upon, including its communication outlets, creating awareness of its various programmes, reduction of bureaucratic red tape and better service delivery for the people.

Meanwhile, the Selangor state government says it is thankful for the confidence and trust expressed by the people of the state towards its performance and views the results as an encouragement for the state leadership to further improve its administration in line with its Merakyatkan Ekonomi Selangor agenda.

The Star Online | 19-July-2009 – PRIME Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak received a tremendous boost recently when his rating approval was reported to be at 65%, up from 46% in mid-May and 42% when he first took office in April.

These ratings were reported by the Merdeka Center which conducted the survey in conjunction with Najib’s first 100 days in office. This survey, along with many others, has put Merdeka Center in the limelight, especially when it comes to gauging political sentiments.

Their research is quoted extensively by both print and electronic media organisations, lending them credibility.

How did this come to be? What role does the centre play and who is behind it?

“We wanted to conduct surveys on our own and not depend on anyone,” says Merdeka Center’s head Ibrahim Suffian, who started the business in 2001 with his friend Hazman Hamid.

“We felt surveys were needed to understand what was going on in the country. We saw it as an opportunity and a service,” says Ibrahim, adding that Merdeka Center is independent and self-funded and though profit is not the main motive, it has to be self-sustaining.

He felt the need for such a service as such information was not freely available.

Today, the company is regularly commissioned by various organisations such as government agencies that want to gauge consumer sentiments and how people perceive public services.

They also conduct surveys for companies that want to enhance their reputation and services.

But the company only started making headway in 2004 when it conducted surveys just before the general election, says Ibrahim.

“Before that, we did things on our own, such as opinion polls ahead of by-elections. We conducted surveys of about 300 to 400 people to get a sense on how to perfect the method. We were not in it full time before 2004.”

Ibrahim says the centre’s main interest is to look at issues as they happen and to see how people react to them.

“We are interested to see if one can develop measurements in public opinion, whether people are satisfied or dissatisfied with a particular service. If we can do this for commercial purposes, then we can definitely do this for the Government because the same is done in other countries,” he shares.

But Ibrahim says that was not the case.

“People will say members of the Chinese community are reluctant to speak out on issues to others. But you can call people and ask them about policies regarding Chinese schools, for example, and very rarely do you get a situation where they don’t respond. Almost 99% respond. They have an opinion on the issue and are not scared to voice it.”

He says there are only certain types of questions which people wouldn’t respond to. For example, non-Muslim respondents would not answer questions about Sekolah Agama Rakyat because they do not know about the issue.

When it comes to questions about political leaders, however, there is some hesitancy to speak out.

“We find that people don’t want to speak out negatively about others, especially to strangers. It is not unique to Malaysians, though. It is just a social condition,” he says.

Ibrahim stresses that the centre only reports its findings and comments on the subject being studied.

“Personal opinions are kept out of the findings. We try not to give too much interpretation to it. We let the people decide for themselves.”

The centre’s team consists of people from various backgrounds such as economics, public relations, statistics and political science. Ibrahim himself comes from a finance and marketing background.

“We need to understand how things are within the political and social stable,” he says.

According to Ibrahim, the aftermath of the 2008 general election was a very interesting time for them.

“People wanted to understand what happened. We got a chance to conduct some very interesting surveys, such as finding out why voters decide the way they did.

“To some extent, what we uncovered in the surveys tend to indicate the trend as shown in the election itself,” he adds.

So while the centre’s research is seen as credible by many, Ibrahim admits that there are some who criticise them, especially when their survey results are critical of the Govern ment.

So much so that many people think they are linked to the Opposition.

“We are not interested in the political personalities but in what people think of them. The polls can be a useful tool for both the Government and Opposition to find better ways to serve the rakyat.

“We just want to track data over time and build up knowledge on what makes society works and makes them tick.”

He says that the centre conducts major surveys on a quarterly basis. These surveys are related to the current economic, political and social scenarios.

Some of these surveys include the recently concluded Najib’s first 100 days, a 2008 voter opinion poll, Perak opinion voter poll and Media Independence Survey.

Ibrahim says they have to also deal with perceptions that they were influencing public opinion for favours from certain parties.

“At the end of the day, a personality or organisation is measured by its own conduct. An opinion poll is just a snapshot of what people think at that point of time. And public opinion constantly evolves … depending on your own action or inaction,” says Ibrahim.

And despite that, they have not been told to stop or tone down their surveys.

“Typically, they would call to ask for more information or to clarify the meaning and the implications of the survey. There are different shades of acceptance. Some take it constructively while others think they are always right.”

He says that Indonesia has a dozen polling organisations and they are more advanced, conducting polls at the national and municipal levels. Thailand has five such organisations while the Philippines has two.

“It is natural in long-developed democracies to gauge public opinion,” says Ibrahim.

Another common criticism of the centre is the sample size of their surveys.

“People ask how 1,000 people can represent a country of 27 million or 11 million voters. The accuracy of the survey does not depend on the size of the sample but its representation. It’s how you select the people to become respondents.

“You can conduct a survey among 5,000 or 10,000 people and still get skewed results if they are not randomly selected or don’t follow certain standards,” says Ibrahim.

He adds that although they randomly selected respondents from the electoral list or phone book, there were certain standards to adhere to, and there has to be a right proportion and distribution of people from the right location, right age group and ethnic mix.

So what does the Merdeka Center aim to achieve ultimately?

“Our aim is to help our democracy mature, to make the Government more accountable to people, and allow the people to have a say in what goes on,” says Ibrahim.